Oil prices rise to two-week highs, trade optimistic expectations hit gold prices, Houthi attacks Red Sea merchant ships again

Basic news

On Wednesday (July 9, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,302/ounce, and gold prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Optimism about the trade agreement between the United States and its trading partners hit the safe-haven capital flow, while the strengthening of the US dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields further increased pressure; U.S. crude oil trading was around $68.12/barrel, and oil prices rose to a two-week highest on Tuesday, as U.S. oil production forecasts lowered, Houthi attacked Red Sea merchant ships again, fears that the U.S. tariffs on copper and technical short cover.

Focus on this day

New Zealand Federal Reserve Chairman Orr held a press conference on monetary policy.

Stock and P.P.500 closed slightly lower on Tuesday as investors were still waiting for further clarity in U.S. trade policy, and President Trump's latest round of tariff threats has weakened negotiation hopes for some trading partners.

Wall Street stocks fell sharply on Monday as Trump warned that a new round of www.xmhouses.comprehensive tariffs would be imposed on goods from August, including key trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, as well as some smaller countries.

The U.S. stock market trend was not as fierce as the previous day, but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which are mainly tech stocks, kept fluctuating between the rise and fall, and investors were looking for directions in the emerging tariff news.

Trump announced on the same day that it would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, expanding the global trade war territory, and said that the long-term threat of tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical products will also be issued soon.

The U.S. president said trade talks with the EU are progressing well, but added, only a few days left before sending a tariff letter to the EU.

BMO Private Wealth chief market strategist Carol Schleif said in Minneapolis: "The market is like holding a breath and waiting for more tariff news." She said: "The market is still maintaining well, just one step away from all-time highs, which shows that investors are willing to keep a wait-and-see attitude towards headlines."

At the same time, investors were relieved that the U.S. government spending plan was approved last week, including some business-friendly tax policies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37% to 44,240.76 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 6,225.52 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.03% to 20,418.46 points.

Of courses of the S&P 500's 11 major industry categories, only five showed an increase. The energy index rose the most, closing up 2.72%, while the defensive consumer staples and utility index both fell more than 1% on the day.

While investors are cautious about large-cap stocks' large-cap stocks, the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index outperforms the market with a 0.66% increase.

The market's cautious response to trade headlines is in stark contrast to the violent fluctuations caused by Trump's April 2 announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, which pushed the Nasdaq downturn, confirmed the bear market and put the Dow and S&P 500 in a revised range.

There has since been a rebound in Wall Street to regain lost ground, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs last week as a solid labor market report helped ease market concerns about the recession.

Bank of America Global Research and Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index, mainly due to reduced policy uncertainty, strong recovery in corporate profits and potential interest rate cuts.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June interest rate setting meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, which may further clarify when the Federal Reserve may resume its easing policy cycle.

Tesla gained 1.3%, and its share price hit its biggest single-day decline in about a month on Monday. In other stocks, U.S. copper miner Freeport rose 2.5%, which appears to benefit from the idea of ​​high import tariffs on metal copper.

Modner is the largest gainer in the S&P 500, with a surge of 8.8%, after major medical organizations filed lawsuits against U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Kennedy and his department, believing that the current COVID-19 vaccine policy poses a threat to public health.

Solar stocks fell after Trump instructed federal agencies on Monday to strengthen provisions of the Big and U.S. Act to repeal or modify tax credits for solar and wind projects.

Gold market

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday, optimism about trade agreements between the United States and its trading partners hit safe-haven flows, while the U.S. dollarStrengthening and rising U.S. Treasury yields further increased pressure.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,307.16 per ounce, after hitting its lowest in more than a week. The settlement price of US gold futures fell 0.8% to $3,316.9.

The index's 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest in more than two weeks, causing gold's attractiveness to decline and the dollar rose 0.1%.

Asian economic powers, Japan and South Korea, said on Tuesday that they will try to negotiate with the United States to mitigate the impact of the drastic tariff increase that President Trump plans to implement from early August.

Trump escalated the trade war on Monday, warning 14 countries would face higher tariffs. However, with the effective date being postponed to August 1, countries are paying attention to the new three-week window to strive for looser trade policies.

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at ZanerMetals, said: "As the July 9 deadline approaches, the Trump administration has stepped up pressure, focusing on trade. But some optimism related to the trade agreement is fueling risk appetite sentiment, causing gold prices to remain sluggish."

At the same time, the market is awaiting the latest Fed's policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, with several Fed officials speaking this week, and investors will look for more information about the economy and Fed's policy path.

Capital macroclimate and www.xmhouses.commodity economist Hamad Hussain said: "The threat of tariffs to stimulate inflation is lingering, which may prompt the Fed to delay rate cuts until next year, which will curb gold prices." Investors are currently expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of this year, and is expected to start action in October.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to $36.64 per ounce, platinum fell 0.8% to $1,359.90, and palladium remained flat at $1,111.36. Oil market

Oil prices rose to their highest two-weeks on Tuesday as U.S. oil production forecasts lowered, Houthi attacked Red Sea merchants again, fears of U.S. tariffs on copper and technical short cover.

Brent crude oil futures rose 0.8%, with settlement price at $70.15 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures closed at $68.33, up 0.6%. The two major indicators hit new closes since June 23.

Price FuturesGroup analyst Phil Flynn said: "The decline in output outlook (US) drives oil prices, and oil prices are also following other www.xmhouses.commodity prices as they rise, as news of copper tariffs and rising tensions in the Red Sea."

According to the latest forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the decline in oil prices has prompted producers to slow production activity this year, with U.S. oil production in 2025 lower than previous expectations.

U.S. President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce a 50% tariff on copper later, aiming to increase U.S. copper production.

In the Red Sea, three seamen, EternityC, a Greek-run bulk carrier, were attacked by drones and speedboats near Yemen, the second incident occurred in a day after months of calm. The Red Sea attack forced ships carrying oil, liquefied natural gas and other energy products to evade the area, driving increased energy costs.

Some analysts also pointed out that the oil market was supported by technical short cover after Brent crude prices broke above $70 a barrel (a key level of psychological and technical resistance). Analysts predict U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels last week.

Foreign exchange market

The yen suffered a sharp drop on Tuesday after U.S. President Trump reiterated his plan to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Japan and South Korea, adding to his changing trade war.

The Australian dollar rose sharply as the RBA unexpectedly kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, not cutting interest rates as generally expected by the market.

Trump began on Monday to inform trading partners that the United States will implement significantly increased tariffs from major suppliers such as Japan and South Korea to some relatively small trading parties. But he later said that if the relevant countries propose a plan, he is willing to consider giving an extension. The yen weakened on Tuesday, with the dollar rising 0.38% against the yen at 146.625.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Tuesday that he would continue to negotiate with the United States in search of a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a research note: "Market participants generally expect the government to continue to adopt the 'drag tactic'."

He pointed out: "While the increased uncertainty will inevitably cause significant damage to corporate investment in the short term, it is generally believed that Trump will gradually increase the actual tariff rate and will not cause a devastating supply shock to the U.S. economy." EU sources familiar with the situation told Reuters on Monday that the EU will not receive tariff letters and may receive a 10% U.S. benchmark tax exemption.

The euro hit a new high in a year against the yen, up 0.58% at 171.980, reflecting the very different fates of the two trading partners. The euro also rose 0.17% against the dollar to $1.1729.

Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Federal Bank of Australia, said: "There is still great uncertainty about where the tariff rates will be and which countries will obtain what tax rates, so the uncertainty in the global economy remains high, which will put investors in a temporary state of tension."

The most prominent performance of the major currencies on Tuesday was the Australian dollar, which rose more than 1% as the Fed's unexpected decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The Australian dollar rose 0.6% to $0.653 in late trading. The market originally thought the RBA would cut interest rates, but the RBA saidThe board "thinks that more information can be waited for" to confirm that inflation is slowing. However, the board of directors pointed out that inflation risks are more balanced and it seems that they are waiting for the second quarter price data released at the end of July before making a decision.

The New York dollar fell 0.03% to $0.6 in late trading; the pound fell 0.04% to $1.3597.

International News

changed his words again: Trump will not pardon illegal immigrants on farms

On July 8, local time, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting that the United States will not pardon illegal immigrants working on American farms. Trump said the massive deportation of immigration is still going on, but it must be carried out strategically to ensure that American agriculture has the labor needed. Just a few days ago, Trump said in a speech at the Iowa Exhibition Center on the 3rd that he is willing to allow immigrant workers who work on American farms to stay as long as the farmer who hires them is willing to provide these immigrant workers with "" to them.

Trump said he was "very dissatisfied with Putin" and threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia

U.S. President Trump said on the 8th that he had approved the delivery of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia. He also said he was "very dissatisfied" with Russian President Putin. Trump said at a cabinet meeting held at the White House that day that Putin had said a lot, "the attitude has always been very good", but the result is "meaningless." Trump said he is considering whether to support a new bill that the Senate is advancing to impose severe sanctions on Russia. On the 1st of this month, the White House and the Pentagon confirmed that the United States suspended some military aid to Ukraine. Trump said in response to reporters' questions at a cabinet meeting on the 8th that he was not aware of who ordered the suspension of military aid. With his approval, the United States is sending "some defensive weapons" to Ukraine.

Trump threatens to impose high tariffs on copper and drugs. US copper prices soar by more than 10%.

On the 8th local time, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting, "We will soon announce some important measures in the field of medicine." "We will give relevant www.xmhouses.companies about a year to a year and a half to adjust, and they will face tariffs after that," Trump said. He added: "If they have to import medicines and other related products into the country, the tariffs will be as high as 200%. In addition, US copper prices soared more than 10%, breaking the all-time high of the New York market after Trump said he was considering surcharges of 50% on copper imported into the United States.

Housei armed forces: maritime attacks are only targeted at Israel and its associated targets

The senior Houthi armed forces leader Mehdi said on the evening of the 8th local time that the maritime attacks launched by the Houthi armed forces are only targeted at Israel, as well as targets related to Israel and support Israel. The Houthi armed forces will not attack irrelevant ships. The day before, Yemen's Houthi armed military spokesman Yehaiya Sareya issued a statement saying that the Houthi armed forces passed two unmanned speedboats.Five missiles and three drones attacked the Magic Ocean, a ship that violated the Houthi navigation ban, and successfully hit the target.

Trump: Powell should resign immediately

On July 8, US President Trump declared at the White House that Federal Reserve Chairman (and director) Powell should resign immediately. Powell (in terms of adjusting policy rates during my tenure) is always too late, but it is not the case during (former president) Biden's tenure. Trump seems to tell Treasury Secretary Becent that he prefers him (Best) than (more) Powell.

Trump: "Reciprocal tariffs" will be implemented on August 1

On July 8, local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform "Real Social" that according to the letters sent to various countries on the 7th and the letters to be sent in the next period of time, the tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. "The date has not changed and will not change in the future." Trump announced on April 2 that he would impose so-called "reciprocal tariffs", which caused a plummeting US financial market. Under pressure from multiple parties, Trump announced on April 9 that he would suspend the imposition of high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trade targets for 90 days, but maintain a 10% "benchmark tariff." On July 7, Trump signed an executive order to extend the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" suspended period and postpone the implementation time from July 9 to August 1.

The U.S. Supreme Court allows Trump to carry out large-scale government agency layoffs

On Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to resume plans to resume large-scale layoffs and institutional restructuring. The judges canceled the May 22 order of San Francisco federal district judge Susan Elkston, which prohibits mass federal layoffs. In February, Trump announced “major reforms to the federal bureaucracy” in an executive order, directing agencies to prepare for government reforms aimed at significantly reducing federal staff and eliminating offices and programs that government oppose. The Supreme Court said in a brief order that was not signed that the Trump administration “will likely succeed on the arguments of its executive order and memorandums to execute its orders.” The Supreme Court said it did not assess the legitimacy of any specific layoff plans for federal agencies.

Trump said he could send tariff letters to the EU within two days

U.S. President Trump said he could send a letter to the EU within two days to disclose the applicable tariff rates for goods exported to the EU to the US. Trump said at a cabinet meeting held at the White House that the EU's attitude towards the United States was "very friendly" in recent trade negotiations.

Domestic News

China's e-commerce logistics index hit a new high in the year in June

The China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced the China e-commerce logistics index for June today (9th). Driven by the continued efforts of the old-for-new policy and the concentrated promotion of e-commerce platforms, consumers' online shopping enthusiasm was high in June, and www.xmhouses.companies reported ordersThe volume and user activity hit record highs. China's e-commerce logistics index in June was 111.8 points, up 0.2 points from the previous month. The index rose month-on-month for four consecutive months and hit a new high in the year in June.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Oil prices have risen to the highest level for two weeks, and optimistic trade expectations have hit gold prices. Houthi armed forces attacked Red Sea merchant ships again". It is carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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