The EU plans to impose a floating price cap on Russian oil, and the strengthening of the US dollar offsets the latest tariff impact, gold prices remain stable around 3325

Basic news

On Friday (July 11, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,324/ounce, and gold prices fluctuated slightly on Thursday, as the strengthening of the US dollar offset the impact of US President Trump's latest tariff policy, bringing buying from investors seeking to avoid geopolitical risks. U.S. crude oil traded around $66.90 per barrel, and oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures on global economic growth and Israeli Prime Minister said he was considering ending the Gaza conflict after 60 days of achieving a temporary ceasefire.

Focus on this day

IEA released its monthly crude oil market report.

Stock and Nasdaq rose slightly on Thursday, setting a record closing high. Investors got rid of the latest tariff news from President Trump, thanks to Delta's optimistic financial forecast and Nvidia's record closing market value.

Delta rose 12%, after the airline forecast third-quarter and full-year profits higher than Wall Street expectations. The aviation sector rose, with United Airlines up 14.3% and American Airlines Group up 12.7%. The Dow Jones Transportation Index, widely regarded as a barometer of the economy, hit its highest level since the end of February.

Nvidia rose 0.7%, closing market value exceeded the $4 trillion mark for the first time, bringing the second biggest boost to the S&P 500 index. Data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 227,000 in the week ended July 5, the lowest level in seven weeks, with a consensus estimate of 235,000 in Reuters survey. but,Last week coincided with the July 4 Independence Day holiday, and data usually fluctuated significantly before and after the holiday.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at JanneyMontgomeryScott, said investors were relieved by the latest news from Delta Air Lines and the "quite moderate" unemployment benefits. "Overall, this helped once again bring about a risk-favored pattern that prevailed yesterday and continued to today," Luschini said, "increasingly insensitive to the potential threats of tariffs to inflation and unemployment."

The S&P 500 set a record closing high for the fifth time since June 27, and the Nasdaq set a record for the sixth time. The S&P 500 has set a record close high for the eighth time so far this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, less than a percentage point lower than the closing record set in early December. The S&P 500 rose 0.27% to 6280.46 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 20630.67 points.

Of courses of the S&P Index, nine of them rose. www.xmhouses.communications services fell nearly 0.5%, while technology fell 0.1%.

Although Nvidia closed at an all-time high, the performance of super large-cap stocks was mixed. Netflix, Microsoft and Meta fell. Tesla brought the biggest boost to the S&P 500, up 4.7%, after the electric car maker announced it would hold its annual shareholder meeting in November. A group of investors have urged Tesla to determine the date of the meeting on the grounds of legal obligations.

Last week's strong labor market report sent major Wall Street stock indexes to record highs, rebounding from a sharp sell-off following the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs in April. Chris Haverland, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Research Institute, said, "You are crossing out the box of uncertainty. Last week the big bill was passed. It's a big uncertainty that has been crossed out. The tariff issue is starting to become clearer, and although it's not www.xmhouses.completed, the market is starting to become clearer. Next week, the second quarter earnings season just begins and you'll see how businesses deal with tariffs."

The latest measures announced by Trump include a new 50% tariff on copper starting August 1 and threatening to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods exported to the United States. Some countries are still waiting for official news from the White House, and investors are also paying close attention to trade negotiations.

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that most policymakers expect to cut interest rates this year, believing that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be "temporary or moderate." While most investors believe that the chance of a rate cut in July is unlikely, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is close to 64%.

St. Louis Fed Chairman Mousalem said that the real impact of rising import tariffs on inflation may not be highlighted until the end of this year, or even until 2026, which is also conspicuous.This shows why Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts.

Gold market

Gold prices changed little on Thursday as a strengthening dollar offset the impact of President Trump's latest tariff policy, bringing buying from investors seeking to avoid geopolitical risks. Spot gold was $3317.44 per ounce, up 0.1%. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.1% at $3,325.7. "Unless there is a major escalation in geopolitics, I don't think gold will break through $3,400, and in the short term, I think gold will maintain range trading." Trump launched a further tariff attack on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil, both of which will be imposed from August 1.

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes showed that only "several" officials believed that interest rate cuts could be cut as soon as possible this month, and most policymakers remain worried about inflationary pressures caused by tariffs.

In terms of data, the unexpected decline in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week, suggesting that employers may still retain workers despite other signs that the labor market is cooling.

Of other metals, spot silver rose 1.5% to $36.87 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.5% to $1,353.55. Palladium climbed 3.9% to $1,148.43, after hitting its highest level since July 3. Oil market

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff measures on global economic growth. Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.64 a barrel, down 2.21%. U.S. crude oil closed at $66.57 a barrel, down 2.65%.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, the largest Latin American economy, to impose a punitive tariff of 50% on goods exported to the United States, putting pressure on Brazilian President Lula on the allegations that Brazil planned a coup against former President Bolsonaro to prevent Lula from taking office in 2023. Lula convened a ministerial meeting on Thursday after he posted on social media a day after hinting at a peer-to-peer measures.

Trump also announced plans to impose tariffs on copper, semiconductors and drugs. His administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and other countries, and this week sent letters to more than a dozen countries, including major U.S. suppliers South Korea and Japan.

Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group, said that due to Trump's repeated stance on tariffs, the market's response to such announcements is no longer strong.

Tchilinguirian said: "In view of the capricious policy making and the flexibility the government has shown on tariffs, people are largely on the verge of observation.Looking for state. "

The Federal Reserve's June 17-18 minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures brought by Trump's tariffs, with only "several" officials saying at the meeting that they believe the rate cuts may be as soon as this month. High interest rates make borrowing more expensive and may slow demand for oil.

OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to approve continued sharp production increases in September, a move marking the gradual lifting of the voluntary production cuts in eight member states is about to be www.xmhouses.completed, while the UAE will turn to higher production quotas.

However, Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said OPEC+ said that due to the possible peak of oil demand, OPEC+ said that it may suspend production increases in October.

Otherwise, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio held "candid" talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, in which he expressed Washington's disappointment about lack of progress in ending the Ukrainian war.

Trump recently said he was considering a bill to impose tougher sanctions on Russia.

Forex Market /h2>

The dollar rose against major currencies such as the euro and Swiss francs on Thursday as the currency markets largely turned a deaf ear to President Trump's latest tariff rhetoric, with only the threat of 50% tariffs on Brazil slumping the real.

Investors are eager for riskier assets, as the most destructive tariff schemes look increasingly unlikely. This gang Nvidia became the first stock ever to have a valuation of $4 trillion.

The quota of 10-year U.S. public after data showed unexpected declines in unemployment claims last week The bond yield rose. The yield rose 1 basis point to 4.352%.

The record of the Fed's last meeting also boosted optimism, with most policymakers deeming a rate cut appropriate later this year.

Juan Perez, head of trading at MonexUSA in Washington, said that despite the volatility of tariffs, the market has gradually realized that the U.S. economy remains a key pillar in the global trading system, which has benefited partly the dollar.

Perez said, "What should you do when the U.S. is underperforming?" The answer is still to hold the dollar. To some extent, this series of tariff remarks and their sudden releases have highlighted the power of the powerful concept of 'leverage', "

The dollar rose 0.37% against the Swiss franc to 0.797, and is expected to rise after two consecutive trading days of decline. The dollar remained flat against the Japanese yen at 146.235.

The euro fell 0.23% against the dollar to 1.1692, and is expected to fall for two consecutive trading days.

The dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.27% to 97.638, after a decline in the previous trading day.

Brazil President Lula said he hopes to resolve the issue of Trump's threat of imposing 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports through diplomatic means, but he alsoIt is pledged that if the tariffs www.xmhouses.come into effect on August 1, Brazil will take reciprocal measures. Brazil was originally scheduled to be subject to a benchmark tariff of 10%, but the reasons cited by Trump were not only trade, but also the treatment of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro and Trump were in office and are currently on trial for planning a coup to prevent the incumbent President Lula from taking office in January 2023.

Real once fell 2.8%, the biggest drop since June 6. Real fell 0.56% to 1 USD against real 5.5433. In addition to Brazil, Trump's latest letters to trading partners include tariff rates similar to those he originally announced on "Liberation Day" on April 2, as did other letters this week.

International News

Is the Prime Minister said he was considering ending the Gaza conflict after 60 days of achieving a temporary ceasefire

Is a statement released by the Prime Minister's Office shows that during the meeting, Netanyahu said that during his previous meeting with US President Trump, he had "discussed in detail" the issue of detained personnel with Trump. Some Israeli media quoted reports from the people present, saying that Netanyahu said during the meeting that it was "unable" to reach a www.xmhouses.comprehensive ceasefire agreement at this stage, but Israel is making efforts to do so and considering ending the Gaza conflict 60 days after the temporary ceasefire is achieved.

Brazil said it would return Trump's tax increase letter and summon the U.S. Interim Office

In response to US President Trump's claim that it would impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods from August 1, on the afternoon of the 10th local time, Brazil's Minister of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Carlos Favaro said that the US government imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian exported products was an "impaired measure." Favaro said that he would focus on important markets with huge consumption potential such as the Middle East and South Asia, which could become alternatives to Brazil's exports. On the 9th local time, the Brazilian government said it had informed the US Embassy that it would return the letter sent by US President Trump on the same day and decided to summon Escobar, the U.S. Interim Office in Brazil, and asked him to explain the part of the letter about former President Bolsonaro.

Report: Trump will use presidential power to transport weapons to Ukraine

It is reported that Trump plans to use presidential powers that Biden has used before to transport American weapons to Ukraine, his first such action since returning to the White House. These weapons worth about $300 million will be allocated from U.S. weapons stocks under the President's Right to Draw. The final decision on what equipment to transport—probably including Patriot missiles and medium-range rockets—is expected to be made soon.

Federal Director Waller strongly supports a rate cut in July: It has nothing to do with politics

Federal Director Waller said on Thursday local time that even if the employment data in June performed strongly, the Fed should still consider cutting interest rates at the July interest rate meeting. He emphasized in a question-and-answer session after the Dallas Fed speech: "I have made clear the point that the current policy interest rate is too high, weA lowering of the benchmark interest rate can be discussed in July. "He believes that inflation has cooled significantly, the employment market has stabilized, and the recent price increase caused by tariffs is limited to specific www.xmhouses.commodities. He said, "When inflation goes down, we do not need to maintain such a tight policy stance, which is the decision-making logic that the central bank should have." "What's special about Waller's statement is not only the timing - the latest employment data just showed that the labor market continues to be strong - but also because he is regarded as a hot candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. US President Trump repeatedly criticized Powell and urged him to step down early, while Waller was regarded as a potential successor because of his dovish stance. But Waller made it clear on Thursday: "Although I belong to a minority, I have clearly demonstrated the feasibility of interest rate cuts with economic logic. It has nothing to do with politics. ”

Israeli official: Iranian partially enriched uranium survives US-Israeli air strikes

According to reports, a senior Israeli official revealed that Israel assessed that some of the underground storage of Iran is close to weapon-grade enriched uranium was preserved in joint US-Israeli air strikes last month, and that these nuclear materials may still be available for Iranian nuclear engineers. The anonymous official said that Israel discovered signs of Iran's secretly accelerating nuclear weapons development as early as the end of last year and began preparing military operations accordingly. Reports said that the Israeli intelligence agency was shortly after the Israeli Air Force killed Hezbollah, Lebanon's Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrula. Iran's nuclear weapons activities were detected. This discovery prompted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to formulate an "independent action" plan. It is worth noting that during the Israeli attack on Iran in mid-June and Trump's decision to join the operation, US intelligence officials said that no evidence of Iran's weaponized enrichment of uranium was found.

Zelensky: Russia-Ukrainian negotiations will not be held for the time being.

On the 10th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will not be held for the time being because the two sides agreed to replace prisoners The operation has not been www.xmhouses.completed. Zelensky also said that he is considering transferring the current Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov to the position of ambassador to the United States. He said that Ukrainian ambassador to the United States will definitely be replaced in the near future. On the same day, Zelensky also said that after a constructive and positive dialogue with US President Trump, Ukraine has received all the necessary political signals, and all signs pointing to the United States' resumption of aid supply to Ukraine. He stressed that "we have reached an agreement on all these issues." Zelensky said that Ukraine and Trump have actively carried out aid with the "Patriot" air defense missile system supply Dialogue. At present, Ukraine has proposed the need for the "Patriot" air defense missile system and supporting missiles. Germany has expressed its willingness to purchase two sets for Ukraine and one set for Norway.

Federal Director Waller supports balance sheet reduction and adjusting asset structure

Federal Director Waller said that the balance sheet should continue to be reduced, including adjusting the asset structure to increase the proportion of short-term assets, but there may be no excessive reduction. "I think we are likely to continue to allow securities that have expired and early repayment to naturally exit the balance sheet in the future, thereby reducing the balance of reserves," WallerIn a speech prepared for the Dallas Fed event on Thursday, he said. Waller advocated balance sheet reduction in his entire speech focusing on the balance sheet, but the amplitude should be smaller than the level suggested by some Fed observers and economists. He proposed that bank reserves are still at a "abundant" level (higher than the "adequate" standard set by the Federal Reserve), and the ideal scale should be maintained at about $2.7 trillion. If the Fed holds currency in circulation and the Treasury general account balance, the total balance sheet size will reach $5.8 trillion, while the current scale is $6.7 trillion.

The EU plans to propose a floating price cap on Russian oil

Four EU diplomats revealed that the European www.xmhouses.commission will propose a floating price cap mechanism on Russian oil this week as part of a new sanctions package to overcome opposition from some member states. In June, the European www.xmhouses.commission proposed to reduce the $60 per barrel price limit set by G7 against Russian oil to $45 in the 18th round of sanctions against Russia. G7 reached the price limit agreement in December 2022, aiming to weaken Russia's ability to raise funds for the Ukrainian conflict. The motion to lower the price ceiling is due to the decline in global oil prices, which makes the current ceiling in vain. Four EU sources said the European www.xmhouses.commission is drafting a mechanism to adjust the Russian oil ceiling based on global oil price fluctuations. One of the people said the plan is still under revision and plans to establish a more automated price review process to connect international oil prices.

Domestic News

A series of results of my country's brain map research have been released in a concentrated manner

Domestic research institutions such as the Center for Excellence in Brain Science and Intelligent Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, BGI and other scientists from many countries have achieved a leap in brain map mapping from rodents to primates at single-cell resolution. Ten important achievements have been published in the "Cell" series of journals. The series of results cover key species such as reptiles, birds, rodents, non-human primates and humans, expanding the connotation of the international brain map in cross-species www.xmhouses.comparison and space-time dynamic analysis. Including the world's first whole-brain connection map of single neuron resolution in the prefrontal cortex of non-human primates, the most www.xmhouses.complete whole-brain connection map of screen-like nucleus of non-human primates, and the first single-cell resolution spatial transcriptome map of hippocampus of normal humans and Alzheimer's disease patients, will provide important support for understanding brain functional mechanisms, etc.

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