Focusing on further sanctions against Russia, tariff haze is once again shrouded, and demand for safe-haven helps gold prices exceed 3370

Basic news

On Monday (July 14, Beijing time), spot gold rose, trading around $3,372/ounce. On Saturday, Trump said that from August 1, 30% tariffs were imposed on goods imported from the EU and Mexico. Trump's tariff measures have made investors seek safe-haven assets; U.S. crude oil was trading around $68.50/barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week that the market was tighter than it seemed. At the same time, investors were also concerned about US tariffs and Trump's possible announcement of further sanctions against Russia on Monday.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed down last Friday, with MetaPlatforms dragging down the S&P 500 index after President Trump stepped up his tariff offensive against Canada, further exacerbating uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.

Trump announced late last Thursday that he would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% to 20% on most other trading partners' goods.

The S&P 500 has fallen from its all-time high the day before, as the market turns to cautiousness, said Michael James, a stock sales trader at Rosenblatt Securities. "The tariff rhetoric we see about Brazil and Canada has indeed escalated the market's anxiety. People have been used to an environment without negative tariff news, but are now reminded that the tariff issue still exists."

Nvidia rose 0.5%, a record high with a total market value of $4.02 trillion. Drone manufacturer AeroVirOnment and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions shares soared about 11% after U.S. Defense Secretary Heigse ordered accelerating drone production and deployment. The S&P 500 fell 0.33% to close at 6259.75 points.

The Nasdaq fell 0.22% to 20,585.53 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63% to 44,371.51 points.

The trading volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with a total of 15.4 billion shares trading, while the average trading volume in the previous 20 trading days was 18.3 billion shares.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow fell about 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. The S&P 500 has risen about 6% so far in 2025.

Investors will soon turn their attention to the second quarter earnings season, focusing on the impact of Trump's capricious tariff policies on large U.S. www.xmhouses.companies. The big www.xmhouses.companies that announced their results this week include JPMorgan Chase, Netflix and Johnson & Johnson.

Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow by 5.7% in the second quarter, with tech www.xmhouses.companies increasing significantly while profits from energy, consumer staples and consumer discretionary products declined, according to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management chief investment officer Michael Landsberg said we believe that expectations for S&P 500 earnings are a bit low, with tariffs and trade issues most of the second quarter, which could lead to some volatility in earnings. "LeviStrauss & Co rose 11% after the apparel seller raised full-year revenue and profit expectations and exceeded quarterly expectations.

MetaPlatforms shares closed down 1.3% after Reuters reported that the www.xmhouses.company was unlikely to make more changes to its paid or agreed model, increasing the risk of new EU antitrust charges and huge daily fines.

Kraft Heinz closed up 2.5% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the www.xmhouses.company was preparing to spin off as the packaged food maker struggled to cope with continued weak demand for its high-priced brands. Problem. Across the U.S. stock market, the ratio of falling stocks to rising stocks is 2.8:1. The S&P 500 hit 12 new highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq hit 58 new highs and 43 new lows. Gold prices rose more than 1% last Friday, and investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Trump announced the latest tariffs, and silver prices jumped to their highest level in 13 years. Spot gold rose 1% to $3,356.93 per ounce, earlier hitting its highest since June 24. U.S. gold futures closed up 1.4% to $3,371.20.

Global stock markets fell after Trump stepped up his tariff offensive on Canada, saying the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imported products next month and plans to impose a www.xmhouses.comprehensive tariff of 15% or 20% on most other trading partners.

Trump also announced last week that it would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods. Aakash Doshi, global head of gold strategy at State Street Global Investment Management, said: "We are in an environment where uncertainty premiums are back in the market and gold is getting safe-haven buying.

I think the third quarter range is likely to be between $3,100 and $3,500. The performance in the first half of this year is very strong, and I think we are now in the consolidation stage."

Federal Governor Waller reiterated the possibility of a rate cut this month last Thursday, with investors expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year.

Spot silver rose 3.9%, hitting its highest since September 2011 at $38.46 per ounce. Platinum rose 2.8% to $1,399.13, while palladium rose 6.5% to $1,216.12.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said the price of palladium may be due to speculation that Trump will issue a "important" statement against Russia on Monday, which could involve sanctions affecting palladium. Oil market

Oil prices rose more than 2% last Friday, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying the market is tighter than it seems, while investors are also concerned about U.S. tariffs and possible further sanctions on Russia.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose 2.5% to $70.36 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.8% to $68.45 a barrel. Last week, Brent crude oil futures rose 3%, while U.S. crude oil futures rose about 2.2%.

The International Energy Agency said the global oil market may be tighter than it seems, thanks to peak capacity in the summer to meet travel and power generation needs. September Brent crude oil futures reached about $1.20 www.xmhouses.compared to October futures. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said: "The market is beginning to realize supply tightness." Energy services www.xmhouses.company Baker Hughes said U.S. energy www.xmhouses.companies have reduced active oil and gas rigs for the 11th consecutive week this week. The last time this happened was in July 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic caused a decline in fuel demand. Saudi Arabia is expected to export about 51 million barrels of crude oil to China in August, a record high in more than two years, which is one of the signs of improvement in demand.

The Saudi Ministry of Energy said last Friday that the country has fully www.xmhouses.complied with OPEC+'s voluntary production targets.

Trump told NBC News last Thursday that he will issue a "important statement" on the Russian issue on Monday, but did not disclose more details.

Foreign Market

The dollar rose against major currencies such as the yen and the euro last Friday, as President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada and other trading partners, and trade tensions heated up again.

Trump issued a letter late Thursday saying that he would impose a 35% tariff on all products imported from Canada starting August 1.

Trump also proposed the idea of imposing a www.xmhouses.comprehensive tariff of 15% or 20% on other countries, higher than the current benchmark tax rate of 10%. The global tariff wave he launched has greatly affected enterprises and policy formulation. Last week, he unexpectedly announced a 50% tariff on Brazil and announced tariffs on copper, medicines and semiconductor chips.

Michael Brown, a market analyst at Pepperstone, London online broker, said: "After Trump announced a full tariff, some tariff-related tensions appear to be emerging again. Overall, the trend we are seeing in the foreign exchange market is relatively limited, and the recent range seems to be temporarily held."

The US dollar rose 0.79% against the yen to 147.4 yen, up nearly 2% last week, the largest single-week gain since early December. The US dollar was flat against the Swiss franc, at 0.79695 Swiss franc.

The euro fell 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1688. On Saturday, Trump said that he would impose 30% tariffs on goods imported from the EU and Mexico from August 1 respectively.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.11% against the US dollar to 1.3672 Canadian dollars, and Trump once fell more than 0.5% after announcing the tariff rate. Brazilian real fell 0.26% against the US dollar.

The market has basically not responded to a series of new tariffs www.xmhouses.compared to the crazy sell-offs following the April Liberation Day statement, but investors are still nervous about the future of global trade and whether August 1 is the deadline.

While the rise in tariff concerns has supported the dollar again, some traders remain skeptical of the dollar's medium-term outlook, which has been under enormous selling pressure this year.

Data showing labor market resilience and the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting record hit the market's expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut and also supports the US dollar.

The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 97.85, with the weekly trend rising, ending its previous two consecutive weeks of decline. So far this year, the U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 10% on concerns that data may soon reflect more broadly the damage U.S. policy has caused to its economy.

The British pound fell 0.54% against the dollar, hitting a two-week low of $1.35,050, data showed that the UK economy contracted unexpectedly for the second consecutive month in May.

International News

Trump plans to increase tax by 200% in Japan's pharmaceutical industry. US President Trump said that he plans to impose tariffs of up to 200% on imported pharmaceuticals and raw materials. Among all the known U.S. tariffs, this tariff rate is the highest, causing high tensions in the Japanese pharmaceutical industry. Data shows that Japan last yearThe export volume to the United States exceeds 400 billion yen (approximately RMB 19.65 billion), and among all export countries and regions, the export volume to the United States accounts for as high as 35.5%, making it the largest export market for Japanese pharmaceuticals. The Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Association has set up a special investigation team in April this year to evaluate the potential impact of US tariff policies on the industry. The association is concerned that if the new tariffs www.xmhouses.come into effect, Japanese pharmaceutical www.xmhouses.companies may face a sharp decline in returns and have to cut their R&D budgets, which may lead to delays in new drug development projects and have a long-term impact on the entire industrial chain.

Iran warned the three European countries that sanctions will be kicked out of nuclear negotiations if they resume sanctions

European News Agency reported on July 12 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragici issued a warning to the three major European countries (Germany, France and the United Kingdom) participating in the currently suspended negotiations on Iran's nuclear program: If the three countries resume sanctions on Iran, it will automatically mean that they will be excluded from any future dialogue on this issue. "The move to restore sanctions will mean the end of Europe's role on the Iranian nuclear issue." Aragic made the above statement to several Iranian ambassadors on the 12th.

The United States issued a "tariff ultimatum" to the EU and Mexico, and its allies strongly responded

U.S. President Trump issued two tariff threat letters on the 12th, saying that from August 1, it would impose 30% tariffs on goods imported from the EU and Mexico. The European Union, the largest trading partner of the United States, immediately stated that it would counter it if necessary. So far, Trump has issued tariff conditions to 24 countries and 27 EU member states. Analysts said that the trade turmoil caused by these letters will eventually force American consumers to pay.

"Federal Medal": Fed's independence is challenged again, and interest rate cuts are not expected this month.

The dispute over the renovation of the building has made a faction within the Trump administration that has long wanted to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve even more bold. Treasury Secretary Bescent, and other economic advisers generally advocate maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve. For example, Becente refused to criticize Trump for the renovation of the building in a recent Fox Business interview. But other advisers and external allies have been exploring legal ways to remove Powell from office since the election. "No one is willing to undergo a major renovation of a historic building during his term, let alone two historic buildings that require extensive renovations," Powell said in his testimony last month. Previously, Trump pushed for lower interest rates on a larger scale to reduce government borrowing costs. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates later this month, but Powell has already suggested that it could cut rates later this year if inflation performs well or labor markets are weak. Trump hopes to reduce the debt service cost of the federal deficit, and his tax cuts could expand the federal deficit. But outside extreme situations such as war, central banks in developed economies will resist such pressure. They believe that stabilizing inflation is crucial to maintaining confidence in the country's currency.

Urban MPs: The United States partially resumes aid to Ukraine, but the total amount has been reduced by 90%.

Ukrainian Parliamentary Alexander Dobinsky (detained in a pretrial detention center for suspected treason) said in an interview that the United States has allocated only $300 million, accounting for less than 10% of the promised $3.8 billion. Dobinsky posted on Telegram: "Look at how the 'victory' of US military aid works. First, cut off the aid to force Zelensky to accept the US's view on further negotiations with Russia. After receiving the relevant signal, $300 million of aid was thawed, while the previously agreed total amount of $3.8 billion." The MP pointed out that the restored aid accounts for less than 10% of the total possible aid. He stressed that this is equivalent to a 90% reduction in aid.

Trump's plan to impose 50% tariff on copper is reportedly involved in refined copper

U.S. President Trump's plan to impose 50% import tariff on copper will cover all refined copper, reflecting that he is taking extensive measures to boost U.S. production in this widely used material field around the world. Trump said the copper tariffs will take effect on August 1, but did not disclose too many details. However, according to people familiar with the matter, refined copper will be included in the tax scope. Because of the undiscussed discussion, people familiar with the matter asked to be anonymous.

Domestic News

Wang Yingsheng, Vice President of China Iron and Steel Industry Association: China, as the world's largest domestic steel demand market, will exist for a long time

Wang Yingsheng, Vice President of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said that in the short term, domestic steel demand in the second half of 2025 is likely to continue to decline. In the long run, China's steel demand will remain in the peak platform range for a long time. It is predicted that China's crude steel production will be 800 million to 900 million tons by 2035, and it is expected to remain around 800 million tons after 2050. China, as the world's largest domestic steel demand market, will exist for a long time.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Focusing on the further sanctions of the United States against Russia, the haze of tariffs has once again shrouded, and the demand for safe-haven aversion has helped gold prices to exceed 3370". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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