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market analysis
EU Trade Commissioner urgently assigned Washington, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 14
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The EU Trade www.xmhouses.commissioner urgently assigned Washington, analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 14". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.29%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.30%. The German DAX index fell 0.83%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.38%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.41%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.60%.
2. Interpretation of market news
The EU Trade www.xmhouses.commissioner urgently assigned Washington
⑴ On July 14, EU Trade www.xmhouses.commissioner Marosh Sevchovich said that he would talk to US counterparts again on the same day, emphasizing that he would "not give up easily." ⑵ Trump wrote a letter over the weekend that threatened to impose a 30% tariff on European goods from August 1, disrupting the pace of negotiations that was originally scheduled to reach a framework agreement on July 9. ⑶Sefjovic said that despite receiving the letter, the US side is still preparing to continue negotiations, and the EU will also prepare a second round of retaliation list for US goods that are up to 95 billion euros. ⑷ The Trade Ministers of EU Member States held emergency consultations in Brussels on the same day. Danish Foreign Minister Rasmussen expressed his full support for Sevchovich to deal with this "key node".
Zelensky met with the US Special Envoy to discuss military cooperation and sanctions against Russia
On the 14th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he held a meeting with Ukrainian Special Envoy Kellogg, and the two sides had a fruitful dialogue. Zelensky said the meeting focused on the path to achieving peace, andHow to advance this goal through specific cooperation. Zelensky said that specific areas of cooperation include strengthening Ukrainian air defense forces, carrying out joint production, and jointly purchasing defense weapons and equipment with Europe. In addition, the two sides also discussed sanctions against Russia and its facilitators. Earlier that day, Keith Kellogg, the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Affairs, arrived in Kiev for a visit.
Morgan Stanley says tax reform bill and performance outlook will boost U.S. large stocks
Morgan Stanley strategists say U.S. large stocks are attractive because they are expected to benefit from fiscal spending bills and strong performance outlook. The team led by Michael Wilson said the tax reform bill could hope to improve cash flow, thereby supporting investment logic in sectors such as technology, www.xmhouses.communications services, health care and energy. Furthermore, the breadth of performance expectations corrections improved significantly—that is, the number of analysts who raised their earnings expectations minus the number of analysts who lowered expectations—had boosted investor sentiment amid the continued trade uncertainty, Wilson noted. He reiterated his preference for the financial and industrial sectors, noting that the sector's earnings expectations have increased significantly in the recent period. "The new tax reform bill is good for large-cap indexes, as is the strong earnings per share correction."
Thailand set up a special task force to investigate the controversial call incident of former Prime Minister Petton.
On July 14, local time, the Thailand National Anti-Corruption www.xmhouses.commission held a meeting and unanimously decided to set up an investigation team to investigate Petton's suspected serious violations of moral standards. The investigation originated from a recording involving conversations between Petton and Cambodia Senate Chairman Hun Sen on the dispute between Thailand and Cambodia.
The US-South Korea tariff negotiations may extend the allocation of defense costs into a new variable
⑴ Goldman Sachs analyst team pointed out that the process of US-South Korea tariff negotiations may be longer than expected, as the two sides need to renegotiate the cost sharing plan of the US military in South Korea. ⑵ Analysts led by Goohoon Kwon said: "The inclusion of the negotiations in the issue of defense costs will delay progress." The South Korean government plans to implement the 2024 agreement and bear US$1.11 billion in military garrison costs in 2026, but the Trump administration demands greater contribution. ⑶ Despite the increased www.xmhouses.complexity of negotiations, Goldman Sachs still expects that the two sides will eventually reach a trade agreement based on www.xmhouses.common strategic interests in the fields of manufacturing, energy and shipbuilding.
The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond fell slightly, the central bank suggested that it might accelerate interest rate cuts
⑴ The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond fell slightly to 4.623%, as Bank of England Governor Bailey suggested that if the labor market deteriorated further, the rate cuts might be stepped up. ⑵ Bailey pointed out that the UK's economic growth rate is below the potential level, and the resulting economic idleness will help curb inflation and reiterate that interest rates are on a downward channel. But he stressed that if economic weakness intensifies, the process of interest rate cuts may be accelerated. ⑶ The market is closely monitoring the employment and inflation data to be released by the UK National Statistics Office this week. Global trade tensions have escalated significantly as Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods starting August 1. ⑷AnalysisIt is believed that benefiting from the existing UK-US trade agreement, the UK is expected to exempt this round of tariffs. This could make the UK a more attractive hub for European exporters, with www.xmhouses.companies that may obtain tariff-free access to the US market through the UK, driving new investment inflows.
OPEC expects oil demand to be "very strong" in the third quarter, tightening supply and demand balance
⑴ OPEC Secretary-General Gais said that OPEC expects oil demand to be "very strong" in the third quarter, and the supply and demand balance will tighten in the following months. Currently, OPEC and its allies are increasing production. ⑵Ges said during the OPEC seminar in Vienna that due to the strong global economy, oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. "This means we will see very strong demand growth, especially in the third quarter." ⑶OPEC+ eight member states are lifting their production cuts over the years. Five sources revealed that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will approve another significant increase in production in September. ⑷Ges added: "We will also see good demand growth in the fourth quarter, while the supply and demand balance will tighten. This is one of the main fundamental factors that have led to the increase in production in these eight member states." ⑸ OPEC's latest World Oil Outlook 2025 shows that global oil demand averages 105 million barrels/day this year, and is expected to increase to 106.3 million barrels/day in 2026 and climb to 111.6 million barrels/day in 2029.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1690, an increase of 0.00%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (EURUSD) price rose at the recent intraday level, supported by positive signals (RSI) that began to appear, amid the persistence of negative pressure from its trading below the EMA50 after reaching oversold levels in an attempt to get rid of this situation and mitigate some previous losses, which prevented its recovery on an intraday basis, especially as its short-term trading is within the range of bearish corrective Channel.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3490, a drop of 0.02%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price continued to decline in the previous trading, dominating the short-term bearish correction trend, trading along the bias line, preparing to break through the current support level of 13460 due to the ongoing negative pressure of its trading below EMA50, on the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) began to form a positive overlap signal, which could reduce upcoming losses after reaching oversold levels.
Spot gold:As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3360.45, an increase of 0.09%. Before New York, the price of (gold) rose in the last intraday trading, successfully breaking through the current resistance at $3365, after it successfully escaped the apparent overbought conditions of (RSI), noting that they began to show positive overlap signals, opening the way for more gains, with dynamic support supported by trading above its EMA50 and dominated by the short-term major bullish trend and its trading along the deviation lines.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 38.969, an increase of 1.43%. Before the New York market, the price of (silver) closed in the last intraday trading as a truce to catch a breath to collect the gains from the previous rise, trying to unload some obvious overbought conditions on (RSI), especially as negative signals begin to appear, to build up positive forces in the dominance of the main bullish trend in the short term and trading along the bias line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 69.400, an increase of 1.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price rose in the last intraday trading, breaking through the key resistance level at $68.00, supported by continued trading above the EMA50 and trading along the bias line under the dominant short-term major bullish trend. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) began to show negative signals, which could slow down the rise of intraday prices after reaching overbought levels.
4. Institutional view
Goldman Sachs: US-South Korea tariff negotiations may take longer than expected
Goldman Sachs said that US-South Korea tariff negotiations may take longer than expected because the two sides need to re-negotiate on the issue of sharing the cost of the US military stationed in South Korea. The current negotiations with South Korea cover defence cost sharing, which may slow down the negotiation process. Goldman Sachs analysts say the issue adds www.xmhouses.complexity to trade talks – South Korea plans to www.xmhouses.comply with its existing 2024 agreement that requires South Korea to bear $1.11 billion in defense costs in 2026, while President Trump is seeking South Korea to increase its investment. Goldman Sachs expects a trade agreement to eventually reach a given the www.xmhouses.common strategic interests of the two sides in manufacturing, energy and shipbuilding.
Belenberg Bank: The U.S. and the Eurozone may be trapped in a spiral escalation of trade disputes
Belenberg Bank's SalomonFiedler in a reportIt shows that the United States and the eurozone may be trapped in a spiral of a trade dispute. In this case, the two sides may continue to raise tariffs to escalate the situation until an agreement is reached. Fiedler noted that eurozone exports to the United States may eventually face higher tariffs after Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff over the weekend. Although we still believe that the 10% tariff rate is the most likely end result, the risk is currently clearly biased towards higher tax rates.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The EU Trade www.xmhouses.commissioner urgently assigned Washington, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 14" was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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