Gold hits three-week highs as Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russia

Basic news

On Tuesday (July 15, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,344.46/ounce, gold prices fell after hitting a three-week high on Monday. The focus of market attention was on trade negotiations and U.S. economic data, while silver climbed to its highest level since September 2011; U.S. crude oil trading was around $66.95/barrel, and oil prices fell nearly 3% on Monday. Investors weighed the new threat of US President Trump to impose sanctions on Russian oil buyers, which could affect global oil supply, while investors are still worried about Trump's tariffs.

Focus on the day

State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy to release economic data for the second quarter and June, including GDP, retail sales and industrial data; OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report; Federal Reserve Director Bowman delivered a welcome speech at the meeting hosted by the Federal Reserve; Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves delivered speeches at the mayor's residence dinner.

Stock Market

U.S. stock market rose slightly on Monday as investors took a wait-and-see attitude after the latest tariff threats from US President Trump were released, avoiding any substantial actions, and the market remained stable as the busy economic data release and financial report season is about to usher in.

Trump further exacerbated trade tensions over the weekend, vowing to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from August 1, which has made it necessary for all parties to seize the time and at the last minuteWork hard to reach a trade agreement.

The EU will extend the suspension of retaliatory measures until early August, hoping to reach a ceasefire agreement through negotiations. The White House said negotiations with the EU, Canada and Mexico are still underway.

Investors have reacted coldly to the series of headlines and seem to have become numb to Trump's ongoing tariff threats and his frequent turnarounds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.20% to 44459.65 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.14% to 6268.56 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.27% to 20640.33 points.

Trading volume was also very sluggish, with turnovers being 15.43 billion shares, while the average turnover in the past 20 trading days was 17.62 billion shares.

The market performance has continued to be strong in recent weeks, despite Trump's continuous wielding the "tariff knife" and emitting frequent trade threats.

The Nasdaq index closed at an all-time high, the seventh time since June 27. The S&P 500 index is about 12 points lower than the highest closing point set last Thursday, setting a record five times in the same period. "If there is any resistance at the moment, it is that we have had a pretty good uptrend since April," said Jason Pride, head of investment strategy and research at Glenmede. "With initial concerns that Trump's tariff policy would harm the U.S. economy, the tax policies announced so far and its iconic economic legislation passed last week will roughly offset each other, which means investors are beginning to feel more confident in the economic growth outlook.

A series of new reports on the state of the U.S. economy will be released this week, and there will be signs of how Trump's policies are playing.

The second quarter financial report season will kick off on Tuesday, when several heavyweight banks on Wall Street will announce their financial reports.

The latest consumer price data will also be released on Tuesday, which is expected to show inflation rose in June as sellers began to pass on the costs of full tariffs.

Producer and import price reports on Wednesday will provide a new perspective on the formation of supply chain pressure.

Trump's tariff rhetoric still has an impact on the market, with one obvious area being crude oil prices. U.S. crude fell 2.2% as he threatened to impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil exports, a move that could have a ripple effect on global energy supply.

This pushed the energy index down 1.2%, the largest drop in the S&P 11 sectors.

The www.xmhouses.communications service sector rose 0.7% on Monday, leading the market against the backdrop of the close of most sectors. Among them, the rise in Netflix's stock price provided support for the sector - the www.xmhouses.company will release its financial report on Thursday. In addition, Warner Bros. Exploration's stock price rose, benefiting from the strong performance of its latest Superman movie at the box office. Gold prices fell after hitting a three-week high on Monday, with market focus on trade negotiations and U.S. economic data, while silver climbed to its highest level since September 2011.

Spot gold was $3350.97 per ounce, down 0.1%, after hitting its highest point since June 23. US gold futures closed lower by 0.1% at $3,359.1. The dollar hit its highest point in nearly three weeks.

Bart Melek, head of www.xmhouses.commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that after the sharp rise in prices, we saw some profit-taking; however, the gold market generally maintained a high bid.

The EU and South Korea say they are discussing a trade deal with U.S. President Trump. Trump stepped up the trade war on Saturday, saying he would impose 30% tariffs on most goods imported from the EU and Mexico starting next month, after he issued a similar warning to other countries, including Japan and South Korea. Investors are currently awaiting Tuesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index data and Wednesday's producer price index report to find clues to the Federal Reserve's potential policy path.

Spot silver remained flat at $38.36 per ounce, reaching its highest level since September 201 at the beginning of the session.

In other markets, platinum fell 1.5% to $1,378.86; palladium fell 1.9% to $1,192.56, setting a new high in more than eight months earlier in the day.

Oil market

Oil prices fell more than $1 on Monday, as investors weighed the new threat of U.S. President Trump's sanctions on Russian oil buyers, a move that could affect global oil supply, while investors remain worried about Trump's tariffs.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $69.21 per barrel, down 1.63%. U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.15% to $66.98.

Trump announced new weapons to Ukraine and threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian oil buyers unless Moscow agrees to a peace agreement within 50 days.

Oil prices rose in early trading as Washington expected tougher sanctions but then fell back, with traders weighing whether the U.S. would impose high tariffs on countries that continue to trade with Russia. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said, "The market believes this is negative news because there seems to be plenty of time to negotiate, and concerns about the immediate sanctions of Russian oil will be pushed further than the market expected this morning." Bob Yawger, head of Ruisui Energy Futures, said: "The possibility of the United States imposing 100% tariffs on Asian major products is slim, and high tariffs will lead to a surge in inflation." Last week, Trump said he would make a "important statement" on the Russian issue on Monday, after he had said Russian President Putin was ending Ukraine.The lack of progress in the war expresses disappointment.

Russia's maritime oil product exports in June were supported by a bipartisan bill aimed at imposing sanctions on Russia, according to calculations by industry insiders and Reuters. Meanwhile, the EU envoy is about to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the oil price ceiling.

Investors are also paying attention to the results of tariff negotiations between the United States and its major trading partners. The EU and South Korea said on Monday they are negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of imposed tariffs, with Washington threatening to raise tariff rates from August 1.

Foreign exchange market

The euro fell on Monday, and the dollar rose against a basket of currencies, and traders largely ignored the new tariffs before the U.S. released key inflation data on Tuesday.

U.S. President Trump threatened on Saturday that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the EU from August 1, after he had weeks of negotiations with the two major trading partners but failed to reach a www.xmhouses.comprehensive trade deal.

But since Trump first announced higher-than-expected trade tariffs in April and then postponed their implementation, the market's immunity to tariff news has become increasingly strong. "This is something that has happened before, and the impact has disappeared," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet. "At the same time, "negative forecasts have not become a reality, so I don't think tariffs will have too much impact on the market."

The EU accused the United States of being tough on pushing a trade deal, hindering consensus, and warned that countermeasures would be considered if a deal could not be reached to avoid severe tariffs.

Investors will focus on June’s consumer price inflation data on Tuesday to look for signs of price pressure accelerating again.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect overall inflation to rise to 2.7% annually from 2.4% last month. Core inflation is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3.0%.

Federal Funds Rate Futures Traders are expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year, with the first rate cut expected in September.

Trump criticized Powell again on Monday, saying interest rates should be 1% or less. The dollar strengthened on Monday, partly because President Trump announced a new round of weapons aid to Ukraine and threatened to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian exports unless Russia agrees to a peace agreement within 50 days.

The euro fell 0.16% to $1.167 in late trading, hitting a three-week low of $1.1649 earlier. The US dollar index rose 0.19% to 98.07.

Five ECB policymakers told Reuters that Trump's tariff threat www.xmhouses.complicated the ECB's decision-making but is unlikely to undermine plans to suspend interest rate cuts next week.

The rise in bond yields this month provides support for the US dollar, the previous sharp drop has caused the U.S. dollar index to fall nearly 10% so far this year. The dollar rose 0.22% against the yen to 147.72, the highest since June 23.

The Mexican peso fell 0.39% against the US dollar to 18.719. The pound fell 0.52% to $1.3429, the lowest since June 23.

International News

The U.S. Department of www.xmhouses.commerce is investigating the import of drones and polysilicon

The U.S. Federal Register notice shows that the U.S. Department of www.xmhouses.commerce launched a Article 232 investigation into imported drones and their www.xmhouses.components on July 1. If the findings determine a threat to national security, the president can impose tariffs on these goods. The United States also stated in another notice that a Article 232 investigation is underway on polysilicon and its derivatives.

Iranian Foreign Ministry: There is no clear time for Iran-US nuclear negotiations

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagae said on the 14th local time that Iran currently has no clear time for negotiations with the United States on nuclear projects. Regarding the arrangements for the meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragzi and U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steven Witkov, Bagae said that so far, there is “no clear time or place” about the matter.

Report: Trump will announce $70 billion in AI and energy investment, and executives from www.xmhouses.companies such as BlackRock will be present in person

U.S. President Trump will announce a $70 billion investment plan in artificial intelligence (AI) and energy in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, the latest move taken by the White House to accelerate the development of this emerging technology. Investments from multiple www.xmhouses.companies will include the construction of new data centers, expansion of power generation facilities, upgrading of grid infrastructure, and providing AI training programs and apprenticeship programs. Up to 60 leading AI and energy figures are expected to attend. Those expected to attend include Larry Fink of BlackRock, Alex Capp of Palantir Technologies Inc., Dario Amodi of Anthropic, Darren Woods of ExxonMobil and Mike Worth of Chevron.

Sources: The ECB is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July 24 meeting

Sources said that after Trump's latest trade tax threat, the ECB will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June. The ECB is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July 24 meeting. Discussions on interest rate cuts have been delayed until September.

The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariff tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods

According to Xinhua News Agency, the European www.xmhouses.commission's www.xmhouses.committee member for trade and economic security, said on the 14th that if the US-EU trade negotiations fail, the EU is preparing to impose additional counter-tariff tariffs on US imported goods worth 72 billion euros (about 84 billion US dollars). Just as the EU and the United States work to reach a trade deal, US President TrumpOn the 12th, Pudong announced that it would impose a 30% tariff on EU imported goods starting from August 1. Ministers of EU member states held a meeting in Brussels on the 14th to discuss how to respond to Trump's latest statement and prepare countermeasures. Danish Foreign Minister Rasmussen, the rotating presidency of the EU, said at a press conference after the meeting that EU member states believe that the U.S. tariff threat is "absolutely unacceptable." He stressed: "We hope to reach a fair agreement. But if we encounter unfair tariffs, we should be prepared to counter it."

Powell asked the US central bank inspector general to review the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters building

On July 14 local time, as Trump administration officials stepped up criticism of the way the Federal Reserve operates, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has asked the US central bank inspector general to review the costs involved in the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters building. The request was filed with Fed Inspector General Michael Horowitz over the weekend, a person familiar with the matter said. Earlier, White House Office of Management and Budget Director Watt wrote to Powell last week, which read Trump was "extremely concerned" about the cost overrun of the $2.5 billion project. The Fed describes the challenges facing a www.xmhouses.comprehensive restoration of the Marina Eccles Building and its adjacent properties in its material published on its website.

Trump put pressure on Russia to promote a ceasefire "secondary tariffs" may target countries buying Russian oil. Trump said that the United States will ship more weapons to Ukraine. This statement shows that his patience is increasingly exhausted as Russia ignores his ceasefire demand and increases military operations. Trump said: "We will not purchase weapons directly, but will produce them independently, and the relevant costs will be borne by them. The United States will transport "the most advanced weapons." "Trump did not specify what weapons will be provided to Ukraine, only mentioning that these weapons will be used for supplementary replacements. He also said that if a deal is not reached within 50 days, the United States will impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia. Details of Trump's decision also reflect Trump's priority: the move will not cost the United States, and at least for the time being, Trump will not invest new U.S. dollars in Ukraine. The White House has not immediately explained how the Trump envisioned sub-tariff plan will work, but Trump has previously hinted that these tariffs will target countries buying Russian oil.

Trump said it would provide NATO The most advanced weapons to support Ukraine

On the 14th local time, US President Trump said when meeting with NATO Secretary General Rutt that the United States and NATO reached an agreement to deliver weapons to Ukraine on the same day. The United States will provide NATO with the most advanced weapons and equipment, and the United States will send the best resources to NATO, coordinated by NATO to support Ukraine. Trump said billions of dollars of military equipment will be distributed quickly and the Patriot missile will be delivered to Ukraine within a few days. Trump also said that the costs of these weapons will be borne by NATO allies, not American taxpayers. On the same day, Rutt said that countries will quickly transport weapons and equipment to Ukraine, the types of weapons will not be limited to the Patriot missiles.

Domestic News

Li Chenggang met with a delegation of member www.xmhouses.companies of the US Chamber of www.xmhouses.commerce in China and exchanged views on Sino-US economic and trade relations and the development of US www.xmhouses.companies in China. On July 14, Li Chenggang, the international trade negotiator and deputy minister of the Ministry of www.xmhouses.commerce, met with a delegation of member www.xmhouses.companies led by He Maike, President of the US Chamber of www.xmhouses.commerce in China. The two sides exchanged views on issues such as China-US economic and trade relations and the development of American www.xmhouses.companies in China. Li Chenggang said that opening up to the outside world is China's basic national policy. China is promoting high-level opening up to the outside world and steadily expanding institutional opening up such as rules, regulations, management, and standards. The door to opening up will only open wider and wider, and the policies to utilize foreign capital will not change. China always welcomes www.xmhouses.companies from all countries, including US-funded enterprises, to invest in China and share development opportunities. He Maike said that the results of the Sino-US economic and trade talks provide strong support for stabilizing Sino-US economic and trade relations. China has sent a positive signal to the world to further deepen reform and adhere to opening up to the outside world, which is very encouraging. The American Chamber of www.xmhouses.commerce and member www.xmhouses.companies in China will continue to play a role as a bridge and link, support the two countries in expanding economic and trade cooperation, and be www.xmhouses.committed to long-term development in China.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Oil prices fell by nearly 3%, Trump issued a 100% tariff threat to Russia, and gold prices hit a three-week high". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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