Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Market Review】--USD/CHF Forecast: Holds Strong Above 0.90
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/ILS Analysis: Near-Term Support Being Challenged Ear
- 【XM Group】--GBP/USD Forecast: Struggles Against the Dollar
- 【XM Market Review】--USD/CAD Forecast: Eyes Breakout Above 1.45
- 【XM Market Analysis】--USD/CHF Forecast: US Dollar Rallies from Support Against S
market news
Would you rather wait and see than rush to cut interest rates? Euro Bank three-piece set will determine the last jump of the euro
Wonderful Introduction:
Green life is full of hope, beautiful fantasy, hope for the future, and the ideal of longing is the green of life. The road we are going tomorrow is green, just like the grass on the wilderness, releasing the vitality of life.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Would you rather wait and see than rush to cut interest rates? The three-piece set of Euro Bank will determine the last jump of the euro." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (September 11), the euro/dollar European session was trading sideways at 1.1690, still close to the relatively high since the end of July. The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 20:15 today, and Governor Lagarde will hold a press conference and simultaneously disclose the updated macro forecast. As the resolution approaches, volatility in the foreign exchange and equity markets rebounds, traders focus on the wording details of "whether to end the interest rate cut cycle."
State
After the suspension of interest rate cuts in July, new trade arrangements were finalized between Europe and the United States, with a unified tariff of 15% for goods exported to the United States; www.xmhouses.combined with the eurozone's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value 0.6%), and HICP in August was 2.1% year-on-year (2.0% in July) and higher than the estimate, the market generally expects that the main interest rates will remain unchanged this time.
More key is forward guidance: BBH said that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the swap market in the next 12 months is that the probability of a 25 basis point cut is expected, but a Reuters survey shows that most economists believe that the rate cut cycle is likely to end. The main line of the analysis and judgment of the press conference will be "economic resilience and decline in external uncertainty". When asked about risks, Lagarde may emphasize that the management www.xmhouses.committee is "in a favorable position", but will not clearly imply the path to subsequent interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the French parliament voted this week to remove Prime Minister François Bellou and the minority cabinet, causing political noise, but its direct impact on central bank decisions and forecasts is limited.
This time, the macro path of staff will also be updated, focusing on output gap, potential growth rate and inflation center. If the potential growth rate is down and inflation is still higher than the target, neutral interest rates will be passively raisedIf the increase is made, the threshold for interest rate cuts is higher; on the contrary, output will be revised downward in parallel with inflation, and the necessity of restoring easing will increase. In contrast, the Federal Reserve emphasized "data dependence" and did not make a promise for rapid easing. The differences in www.xmhouses.communication strategies between the two central banks have enabled relative policy expectations to continue to dominate the exchange rate.
Technical surface:
On the 240-minute K-line chart, the middle rail of the Bollinger band is 1.1719, the upper rail is 1.1774, and the lower rail is 1.1663; the current quotation is around 1.1690, below the middle rail, close to the previous oscillation center. Judging from the K-line structure, the bodies of recent candles are small, with upper and lower shadows coexisting, and the oscillation characteristics are obvious; the middle rail 1.1719 was repeatedly tested by the upper shadow but not recovered, showing dynamic pressure.
The DIFF of MACD is -0.0001, DEA is 0.0005, and the MACD column is -0.0013, and the kinetic energy is slightly short but not extreme; the RSI (14) is 44.5313, which is below the 50th boom and bust dividing, indicating that the bulls' kinetic energy has not yet fully recovered. If the price continues to be under pressure in the 1.1719 area (Bolling middle rail), the first resistance above looks to 1.1774 and forms a heavy resistance zone with the swinging high point of 1.1779; the lower support focuses on the 1.1663 and 1.1640 levels, and then the lower one is 1.1607 and 1.1573 at the same time. The bandwidth of the Bollinger band is amplified www.xmhouses.compared with the previous period. If the lower track continues to rise and the price remains at 1.1663, it is expected to interpret the structure of "retracement-reverse test-up"; on the contrary, if the below 1.1690 and fall below 1.1640, the selling pressure may increase with the trend, and the short-term will turn into the risk zone of the downward channel.
Prevention of Market Sentiment
The pricing of futures and swaps is forming a market consensus around "the ECB is still holding its hands but no longer rushing to cut interest rates." At the same time, the market expects that the Federal Reserve's marginal easing still needs more economic data to verify, and the imagination space of policy differentiation supports the euro bull market sentiment to a certain extent. The exchange rate is near the relatively high since the end of July, and the mentality of missing out on the opportunity is accumulating; but the divergence between RSI and MACD reminds the bulls that the mood is not hot, and the relationship between volume and price is closer to the state of "reducing volume and rising - dynamic energy passivation".
The risk point is: if there is a lack of clear forward-looking wording at the press conference, or if the staff predicts unexpected revisions to growth and inflation this year, sentiment may quickly switch to "help and profit-taking". From the perspective of trading microstructure, European sessions are often dominated by passive quotations, and active orders in the New York period are more likely to drive the direction. Breakthroughs are best accompanied by active trading periods to reduce the probability of false breakthroughs. Overall, the market is still a consolidation market, and the direction needs to be triggered by news events.
Future Outlook
Short-term (event window): If the statement or press conference clearly states that "is currently in a good position to wait and see" and implies that the threshold for interest rate cuts has been raised, coupled with the upward revision of inflation and growth in 2025, it is a "eagle-like hold on to the sidelines." In this case, if the exchange rate reaches 1.1719 and effectively closes above 1.1750, it is expected to challenge 1.1774/1.1779 resistance band, which can point to 1.18 when further amplified. On the contrary, if the forecast is revised down or the statement returns to "keep an open attitude towards subsequent interest rate cuts" and lacks threshold constraints, the market will price with the "dog-dog" reading, and the exchange rate may be tested 1.1663, and the target of the loss is 1.1640, which may extend to 1.1607 and 1.1573.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Official Website]: I would rather wait and see than rush to cut interest rates? The Euro Bank three-piece set will determine the last jump of the euro". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here