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Is the wave of layoffs just the beginning? Wall Street warns: The biggest change in the oil market has quietly begun
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Is the wave of layoffs just the beginning? Wall Street warns: The biggest change in the oil market has quietly started." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (October 27) during the Asia-Europe time period, the U.S. crude oil December futures contract started an adjustment mode, once falling 1.06%, and currently trading around 61.10. The decline narrowed to -0.65%. Last week, Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil rose 8.9% and 7.7% respectively. On the surface, they were affected by the geopolitics of the United States and Russia and the United States' restrictions on Rosneft.
There is a hidden thread behind the rapid rise in actual oil prices. That is, the decline in oil prices has caused a large-scale shrinkage of shale oil www.xmhouses.companies, which is good for oil prices in the long term.
The emergence of rock oil has www.xmhouses.completely reshaped the supply and demand pattern, pricing logic and www.xmhouses.competition structure of the global crude oil market, fundamentally breaking the previous "monopoly supply" model dominated by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).
At the same time, it should be pointed out that shale oil investment is very sensitive to oil prices. Some studies say that the break-even point of new wells must be reached when the oil price exceeds 65%. That is, the cleared shale oil production capacity will be difficult to add back in the short term. Oil prices will fall in 2025, and oil www.xmhouses.companies will initiate cost defense mode
Crude oil prices in 2025 will fall significantly www.xmhouses.compared with 2024. This core variable directly triggers the cost contraction strategy of U.S. oil and natural gas producers. For the crude oil trading market, falling oil prices have not only www.xmhouses.compressed the profit margins of oil www.xmhouses.companies, but also pushed the industry from "expansion" to "defense." "Layoffs and cost reductions" have become a key action for leading www.xmhouses.companies to respond to market changes - by streamlining manpower and optimizing efficiency, they can alleviate the performance pressure caused by falling oil prices. This trend also provides traders with an important basis for judging the prosperity of the industry.
M&A in 2023-2024After the tide, consolidation and downsizing have become inevitable
Before starting layoffs, the U.S. shale region has www.xmhouses.completed a round of large-scale mergers and acquisitions: During 2023-2024, leading oil www.xmhouses.companies have www.xmhouses.completed multi-billion-dollar transactions - ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Petroleum for US$22.5 billion (including debt), Chevron acquired Hess Corporation for US$53 billion, and Exxon Mobil acquired Pioneer Natural Resources for US$60 billion.
From the perspective of crude oil trading, the core logic of mergers and acquisitions is to "expand the scale and disperse risks in shale basins", but after mergers and acquisitions, they will inevitably face the problems of "overlapping business and redundant positions". As oil prices fall back in 2025, "integration and streamlining" will change from "optional action" to "mandatory action", and the industry will move from the "M&A expansion period" to the "optimization contraction period". This cycle switch directly affects the market's expectations for the crude oil supply side.
Details of layoffs by leading oil www.xmhouses.companies: North America is the core, and the scale and scope exceed expectations
The U.S. shale region is experiencing the most serious layoff wave in three years. The overall situation is characterized by "global linkage and regional focus", which directly affects crude oil trading-related targets (corporate stocks , shale oil derivatives), the specific corporate actions are as follows:
ConocoPhillips: Plans to lay off 25% of its global workforce, focusing on Canadian business (currently 950 employees). The notice will be launched in November 2025, which will affect Canadian shale oil production capacity and regional supply.
Chevron: 15%-20% of global layoffs will be cut by the end of 2026, and 800 jobs will be cut in the Permian Basin (the core U.S. shale oil production area), which may drag down local drilling volume and crude oil production.
ExxonMobil: It will lay off 2,000 people globally, focusing on Canada (subsidiary Imperial Oil) and Texas in the United States (400 jobs have been laid off), which will affect the capacity of the two countries and the flow of cross-regional crude oil trade.
In addition to U.S. www.xmhouses.companies, British Petroleum (BP) has also joined the ranks of cost reductions. Under pressure from shareholders to "reduce costs and debt," BP has accelerated the reduction of contractors and office employees: it has reduced 3,200 contractors so far, and is expected to reduce another 1,200 employees by the end of 2025. A total of US$900 million in cost savings has been achieved through supply chain optimization, of which more than one-third www.xmhouses.comes from contractor reductions. This action reflects that "cost reductions by oil www.xmhouses.companies have extended to the supply chain", which may indirectly affect the efficiency of oilfield services and then be transmitted to the crude oil production link.
Summary:
Previous articles on oil prices have written about the conclusion that clearing production capacity will benefit oil prices. At that time, oil prices were just at the bottom of the box, which coincided with the geopolitical crisis and the recent continuous rise.
Judging from the core logic of "clearing production capacity → shrinking supply → boosting oil prices", the large-scale layoffs of U.S. shale giants and BP are not simply cost defense actions, but also hide key clues to the restructuring of the supply side of the crude oil market - although it is suppressed by the inertia of falling oil prices in the short term, the cumulative effect of production capacity contraction will gradually appear in the medium term, which may provide clear long logical support for crude oil trading.
Technical analysis:
The upper edge of the box is a very cost-effective profit-taking point and is also an important pressure level in the near future.Due to the rapid rebound of oil prices this time, if oil prices can stabilize and fluctuate near the upper edge of the box, oil prices may continue to develop upward in the future.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The wave of layoffs is just the beginning? Wall Street Warning: The biggest change in the oil market has quietly started". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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