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European investors' sentiment improves, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 15
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: European Investors' Sentiment Better, Analysis of Short-Term Trends of Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Foreign Exchange on July 15". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose before the trading session. European stocks rose generally, while European Stock 600 rose 0.22%. The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.13%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.14%, the German DAX index rose 0.25%, and the Spanish IBEX index rose 0.27%.
2. Market news interpretation
European investors' sentiment improves Euro credit default swap price has fallen
As the release of corporate financial reports approaches, investors' sentiment improves, and the euro credit default swap (CDS) price has fallen. The role of credit default swap is similar to default insurance. "In early trading on Tuesday, the European market was generally positive, moving away from the tariff concerns that dominated the weekend news," Rostro analyst Joshua Mahony said in the report. The iTraxx European Cross-Index, which tracks the euro zone's high-yield bond credit default swap, fell 2 basis points to 281 basis points.
Many parts of the UK are trapped in drought. Extreme weather has exacerbated the water crisis.
More parts of the UK have entered a drought state, after England ushered in the driest beginning of the year since 1976, and the heat waves have caused increased water demand. The heat wave made June in England the hottest June on record. Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather in the UK, threatening farmers' livelihoods and the health of vulnerable groups. Temperatures in many parts of the UK this weekIt will rise again later, which will worsen the situation. "We are facing an increasing water shortage over the next decade," British Water Secretary Emma Hardy said in a statement. She added that water www.xmhouses.companies are investing more than £100 billion (US$135 billion) in new reservoirs and pipelines to reduce risks.
Bestert said that the "official process" of selecting Powell's successor has been initiated, suggesting that his position as a director is also questionable.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent revealed that the "official process" of selecting potential successors of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been initiated. "So, you see, the formal process has begun," Becent answered Tuesday morning when asked whether the work was in progress. "There are many excellent candidates, and we will wait and see the speed of progress," Becent also said. "This is President Trump's decision, so it will be carried out at his pace." Becent also said that if Powell leaves office as Fed chairman, it will cause confusion. "Traditionally, the Fed President (resigned) will no longer be a director, and there are many sayings that the Fed President will cause confusion before he or she is nominated," Becent said. "I can tell you that if the former Fed President remains, the market will be very confused."
The EU's 72 billion euro retaliation list locks on Boeing and Bourbon
⑴ The EU Executive www.xmhouses.committee intends to impose counter-tariff tariffs on 72 billion euros (about $84 billion) of U.S. goods, covering Boeing aircraft, bourbon, automobiles, chemicals and agricultural products. ⑵The list was formulated earlier than Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on the EU on August 1 as a response to US automobiles and 10% benchmark tariffs. ⑶ EU trade chief Sevkovic said that member states showed unprecedented determination and immediately retaliate if negotiations failed; French Foreign Minister denounced Trump for threats of "black testimony." ⑷ European beverage industry lobbies to remove spirits and is worried about US retaliation; the first round of the 21 billion euro tariff plan has been suspended until August 6, and the second round has shrunk from 95 billion to 72 billion, with core projects retained.
European industrial output rebounded beyond expectations
⑴European Statistics Bureau announced on July 15 that the eurozone industrial output increased by 1.7% month-on-month in May, far exceeding the market expectations of 0.6%, and fell by 2.2% in April. ⑵ The production of non-durable consumer goods soared by 8.5%, while capital goods and energy increased by 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. ⑶ Intermediate products fell by 1.7%, and durable consumer goods fell by 1.9%. ⑷YoY, the output growth rate jumped from 0.2% to 3.7%, which is also higher than the forecast of 2.9%. ⑸ The overall 27 EU countries increased by 1.5% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. Ireland, Malta and Germany led the gains, while Croatia, Slovakia and Belgium led the declines.
The UK launches a new electric vehicle subsidy plan of £650 million
⑴ The UK government announced the launch of a new electric vehicle subsidy plan, providing up to 375 for electric vehicles sold at no more than £37,000 (about £50,000)0 pounds ($5042) car purchase discount. ⑵The total budget of the program is 650 million pounds (870 million US dollars), and will continue to be implemented until the 2028-2029 fiscal year. ⑶ This policy aims to stimulate demand for electric vehicles and help the UK achieve its net zero emission target.
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russia, and China calls for dialogue to resolve the Ukrainian crisis
According to a report on July 15, 2025, US President Trump said on the 14th that if Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement within 50 days, the United States will impose 100% tariffs on Russia and impose sub-tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil. On the 15th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded at a regular press conference that China has always advocated that dialogue and negotiation are the only feasible way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, and tariff wars and coercion pressure will not help resolve the problem and will only intensify tensions. Lin Jian emphasized that there is no winner in the tariff war, and all parties should be www.xmhouses.committed to creating a favorable atmosphere and accumulating conditions for the political solution to the Ukrainian crisis. He called on all parties to make more efforts to persuade peace and promote talks and avoid taking measures that intensify conflict. China has always had a consistent position, advocating peacefully resolving differences and opposing unilateral sanctions and economic coercion.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1669, an increase of 0.04%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) fell at the recent intraday level after it successfully escaped the overbought conditions of (RSI) and entered the overbought level, which added to the negative factors of the pair's movement as it traded within the range of the bearish correction channel in the short term.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3448, an increase of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price closed low in the previous trading, dominating the short-term bearish correction trend, trading along the bias line, approaching the current support level of 1.3415, and on the other hand, we noticed a positive overlap signal on the (RSI) that, after reaching the oversold level, provides some intraday bullish rebound in an attempt to get rid of some of these conditions.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3353.44, an increase of 0.30%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price closed at a high level in the last intraday trading, reaching the key resistance level of $3365, supported by the (RSI) positive signal. After reaching the oversold level, trading along the secondary bias line in the short term, strengthening the stability of the positive scenario.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 38.130, an increase of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price experienced volatile trading in the last trading day, after its downward goal was to find an upward low, based on this, to help it get the positive momentum needed to recover, noting that after reaching the oversold level, a positive divergence of (RSI) was formed, from which positive signals began to appear, which occurred when the main bullish trend dominated on a short-term basis and trading along the trend line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 66.930, a drop of 0.06%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price stabilized in the last intraday trading, with positive signals appearing on the RSI reaching oversold levels, trying to unload some of these conditions to provide positive impetus to help it settle, which is affected by negative pressure as its trading is below the EMA50, breaking the major bullish trend in the short term.
4. Institutional View
Bank of America: Investor Optimism in July peaked in five months
Bank of America's Monthly Global Fund Manager Survey showed that investor sentiment in July was the most optimistic since February 2025. In a press release released with the survey, the Bank of America said the drivers of this phenomenon include the largest increase in earnings optimism since July 2020, record growth in risk appetite in the past three months, and low bond volatility. "Investors are more inclined to adopt hedging and asset rotation strategies this summer than to short and retreat." Bank of America noted that the findings show that "greed is often harder to reverse than fear."
Dutch International: The euro zone economy is expected to receive certain support
Dutch International Group analyst Colin wrote in a report that production in euro zone factories rebounded in May, and coupled with the continued "pre-tariff boost effect", the region's economy should receive certain support. Industrial output rose 1.7% in May, reversing the decline in April. This is largely due to the increase in pharmaceutical production – www.xmhouses.companies are stocking up in advance due to expectations that the United States will impose import tariffs. Colin said: "The strong production data in May show that the US 'early stocking' effect has faded, the drag on the euro zone's second-quarter GDP may not be as severe as we had expected."
Morgan Stanley: Long-term British bonds are now allocated and are scarce in summer
⑴ The latest report by Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out that long-term UK government bonds are currently significantly attractive, mainly because the market will face a vacuum period for new bond supply in the summer. ⑵ Analysis shows that the market generally expects that the UK government will rebuild the fiscal buffer space through tax increases, and this policy orientation is expected to further consolidate the performance of long-term British debt.
The above content is all about "【XM official website】: European investors' sentiment improves, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 15". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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