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U.S. inflation rebounds, dollar hits new highs in nearly three weeks
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: US inflation rebounded, the US dollar hit a new high in the past three weeks." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 98.60, and the dollar hit a 15-week high against the yen on Tuesday, as U.S. consumer prices hit the biggest increase in five months in June, while traders also lowered expectations for the Fed's possible rate cut this year. This day, we will focus on the speeches of the Federal Reserve Hamak and the Federal Reserve Barr; Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun held a media briefing in Beijing.
Analysis of major currencies
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.60. After the US dollar index (DXY) stood firm at a key support level of 97.899 for the second consecutive trading day, it continued its upward trend towards the 50-day moving average of 98.80. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in June; core inflation was slightly lower than expected, recording 2.9%. Federal Funds Futures currently show that the market expects a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, and September may be the starting point for interest rate cuts. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index rebounded from a low of 96.30, supported by the 10-week moving average, and is testing the resistance level around 98.00. If this level is exceeded, it may further reach 98.35 to fill the price gap; if it falls below 97.00, it may face new selling pressure. Support is in the range of 96.40–96.50. Momentum indicators show that the relative strength index (RSI) is close to the overbought area, so you need to be wary of the risk of pullback; although the daily MACD shows bullish signals, weak CPI data may trigger short-term profit settlement.
1. The United States and its allies set the end of August as the deadline for reaching the Iran nuclear agreement
According to the AXIOS website, three people familiar with the matter revealed that US Secretary of State Rubio and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom had a phone call yesterday and decided to set the end of August as the actual deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached before the deadline, the three European powers plan to launch a "fast recovery" mechanism to automatically re-implement all sanctions canceled by the UN Security Council under the 2015 Iran Agreement. It will take 30 days to launch the "rapid recovery" mechanism, and Europe hopes to www.xmhouses.complete the process before Russia takes over as the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council in October.
2. Trump: The United States will obtain full access to the Indonesian market by reaching an agreement with Indonesia. US President Trump said on social media: Early this dayAfter talking to the Indonesian president, I finally finalized an important agreement with the country. As part of the agreement, Indonesia promises to purchase US$15 billion in U.S. energy products, US$4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft, many of which are 777 models. This is the first time in history that our ranchers, farmers and fishermen will receive full access to the Indonesian market. In addition, Indonesia will pay a 19% tariff on all goods exported to the United States, while goods exported to Indonesia by the United States will be exempted from all relevant duties and non-tariff barriers. If the relevant goods are transferred from a high-tax country, the tariffs corresponding to the country of origin will be superimposed on the tariffs paid by Indonesia. 3. WTO: Global www.xmhouses.commodity trade growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations
The latest data released by the World Trade Organization on the 15th showed that in the first quarter of 2025, global www.xmhouses.commodity trade volume increased by 3.6% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year, due to the surge in imports in North America due to the expectation that the United States will raise tariffs. The growth in www.xmhouses.commodity trade volume in the first quarter was stronger than the latest WTO forecast, but WTO economists expect trade expansion to slow later this year as adequate inventory and tariff hikes put pressure on import demand. In the first quarter, the growth of www.xmhouses.commodity trade volume in various regions varies significantly, especially in terms of imports. North America's imports grew the strongest month-on-month, reaching 13.4%. The WTO said this is mainly due to the widespread market expectation that the United States will announce new tariff measures on April 2, allowing importers to purchase in advance to avoid paying higher tariffs in the future.
4. U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent revealed that the "official process" for selecting potential successors of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been launched.
Becent replied when asked Tuesday morning whether the relevant work had been in progress, "So, you see, the formal process has begun." There are many excellent candidates, and we will wait and see the speed of progress," Becent also said, "This is President Trump's decision, so it will be carried out at his pace. "?Best also said that if Powell left the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, it would cause confusion. "Traditionally, the Federal Reserve Chairman (resigned) would no longer be a director, and there are many sayings that the Federal Reserve Chairman would cause confusion before he or she was nominated," Besent added, "I can tell you that if the former Federal Reserve Chairman still stays, the market would be very confusing. ”
5. Although US tariff concerns have not decreased, Japan's manufacturing confidence rebounded in July
Japan's short-term survey showed that although concerns about US tariffs continued, Japan's manufacturing confidence improved slightly in July, and is expected to strengthen further in the next few months. Monthly survey results show that the manufacturing industry prosperity index rose from positive 6 in June to positive 7 in June, while the service industry prosperity index remained at positive 30 for the third consecutive month. In the manufacturing industry, the electronic machinery industry index rose from negative 16 in June to negative 4 in July, and the chemical index rose from positive 12 to positive18. Some www.xmhouses.companies pointed out that it was due to the improvement in chip demand. A rubber maker executive said, “There are bright prospects in some areas of the semiconductor industry, but others are still stagnant.” In contrast, the transportation machinery industry index, including Japan’s key automotive industries, fell from positive 20 in June to positive 9, with some business executives saying the U.S. 25% auto tariffs have an impact on export volume and costs. The service industry generally rose and fell, and wholesaler confidence improved, but the confidence in the real estate, retail, IT and transportation industries fell www.xmhouses.compared with June.
Institutional View
1. Bank of Montreal: Bank of Canada has no reason to cut interest rates in July. Doug Porter, chief economist of the Capital Markets Department of Bank of Montreal, said that while economic growth is below the potential level, Canada's core inflation remains high, and the retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. imports are partly responsible. In June, the core consumer price index (CPI) indicator favored by the Bank of Canada remained at 3%, at the upper limit of the central bank's target inflation range. He said the June CPI data "gives the Bank of Canada no reason to cut interest rates on July 30." Porter notes that housing costs put upward pressure on core inflation, as does retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. For example, the price increase in durable goods accelerated from 2% in May to 2.7%; the price of automobiles rose by 4.1%; the price of furniture rose by 3.3%; and the price of clothing and footwear rose by 2%. 2. Analysts: The current policy deadlock in the Federal Reserve may continue
Analyst Eric Winograd, an analyst at Alliance Bernstein, said that the latest inflation data has not reduced the uncertainty brought by tariffs and is likely to keep the Fed waiting and watching. He said the slight decline in the housing price index indicates that the potential trend of lower inflation remains unchanged. But the price increase of some www.xmhouses.commodities that may be affected by import tariffs has accelerated. "In fact, if it weren't for the uncertainty related to tariffs, I think the Federal Open Market www.xmhouses.committee (FOMC) would have been confident enough about this trend and has started to cut interest rates," Winograd said. He also said that the current policy deadlock could continue until the situation becomes clearer.
3. Dutch International: The recent decline in pound against the euro may continue
Analysts of Dutch International Group said in a report that given the UK may accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, the recent decline in pound against the euro may continue. Analysts said Bank of England Governor Bailey may reiterate in his next speech that if the labor market deteriorates, more radical interest rate cuts are not ruled out. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that the UK currency market believes that the probability of a rate cut in August is close to 89%. Dutch International expects the euro to rise to 0.88 against pound in the www.xmhouses.coming quarters.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: US inflation rebounds, US dollar hits a new high in the past three weeks",It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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