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The tariff effect is emerging? CPI dispute has not subsided, US dollar hesitation, PPI may trigger divergence risk tonight

Wonderful Introduction:

If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Tariff Effects Beginning? CPI Controversy has not subsided. US dollar hesitation, and PPI may trigger a risk of divergence tonight." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Asian market market

On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued to rise after a moderate inflation report triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve might temporarily keep interest rates unchanged. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 98.57.

Summary of the fundamentals of the foreign exchange market

1. Tariffs

① The latest news from the US Treasury Secretary: There is no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of the additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiations between the two sides are "good".

②European www.xmhouses.commission Vice President Sevjovich will meet with the U.S. Trade Representative.

③Trump: If a trade agreement is reached with Indonesia, it will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the United States, and the United States' exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff-free and non-tariff barrier treatment. If the goods are transferred from Indonesia, the tariff will be superimposed with the tariffs of the country of origin.

④ US Secretary of www.xmhouses.commerce Lutnik: We do not impose tariffs on raw material steel, but only on finished steel.

⑤ The Governor of the RBB: It is full of hope for a good trade agreement.

2. In inflation

① The overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations, and the monthly rate recorded 0.3%, the highest since January, and the market expectations; the core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, and the 3% higher than expected, but it rose slightly from 2.8% last month, and the monthly rate recorded 0.2%, which was lower than the market expectations.

②Interest rate futures still show US this monthThe possibility of a Fed rate cut is extremely small, but the possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September is high.

③Federal Mickey Box: The CPI report will not change the Fed's policy direction.

④Trump: Consumer prices are sluggish, and the federal funds rate should be lowered immediately. The Fed should lower interest rates by 3 percentage points.

⑤Federal Collins: The core inflation rate is expected to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should maintain positive patience.

3. The White House denied that Trump privately encouraged Ukraine to increase its in-depth attack on Russia and asked whether it could attack Moscow.

4. US media: The United States and its allies set the end of August as the deadline for reaching the Iran nuclear agreement.

5. US Treasury Secretary Becent: The official procedure for the successor of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been initiated, and the selection will be carried out at Trump's speed.

6. OPEC Monthly Report: The global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is expected to be maintained at 1.29 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2026 is expected to be maintained at 1.28 million barrels per day.

7. The United States threatens to withdraw from the International Energy Agency.

Summary of institutional views

Berenberg Bank: There is no winner in the trade war, and US inflation will further rise to...

No winner in the trade war. As the United States has launched conflicts with all trading partners at the same time, it will face damage from multiple directions. The EU accounts for only about 20% of U.S. goods imports. However, a 30% tariff on all EU goods alone could easily increase US consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. Even without these new threats of tariffs, we expect U.S. inflation to rise to 3.4% (year-on-year) by the fourth quarter, and the Fed has no room for a rate cut in the near future.

The impact on the EU is less clear. Eurozone inflation has fallen back to its 2% target, giving the ECB more room for interest rate cuts as the economy deteriorates significantly – although a trade war with the escalating EU countermeasures could also bring some price pressure here. More importantly, the trade war will be another blow to the already fragile prospect of real economic growth. While we currently expect real GDP growth in the euro zone to rebound to 0.4% from the fourth quarter (more than month), trade conflicts increase the risk of economic recovery being delayed until 2026.

In addition, even if negotiations ultimately avoid the highest new tariffs, the longer the delay, the greater the accumulated economic losses. The current extreme uncertainty makes it difficult for businesses and families to plan and invest.

Analyst James Hyerczyk: Service and housing costs drive up inflation, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is still www.xmhouses.complex.

Latest data shows that the US CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in June after a seasonal adjustment, higher than 0.1% in May. Year-on-year, annual inflation climbed to 2.7%, up from 2.4% the previous month, a growth that has been closely watched by traders to find clues to the Fed's next move.

Housing costs remain a key factor driving inflation, up 0.2% month-on-month in June and 3.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, energy prices reversed their declines in May, up 0.9% in June. Gasoline prices rose 1.0%, while electricity prices rose 1.0% month-on-month, soaring 5.8% year-on-year. Natural gas prices also rose, up 0.5% monthly and 14.2% year-on-year.

After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% in June, the same as last month's gains. On an annual basis, the core inflation rate is stable at 2.9%, indicating that the price pressure on services and some consumer goods remains.

The rebound in overall inflation and the ongoing pressure on core inflation may www.xmhouses.complicate the Fed's policy outlook. Year-on-year inflation is well above the Fed’s 2% target, with the continued rise in core readings and strong performance in the housing and service categories, suggesting inflation is not fully under control. Market participants should pay close attention to upcoming labor market data and July CPI report for more policy guidance.

Short-term market sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish for stocks and bonds. Continued core inflation driven by service and housing costs may keep the Fed cautious about rate cuts.

UBS

Last week, U.S. President Trump concluded the weekend with a threat statement: starting from August 1, a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU will be imposed. This move will undoubtedly inject new uncertainty into the global market. The tax rate proposed this time is even higher than 20% initially announced in April 2025, and is on the occasion of the expiration of the "Liberation Day" tariff suspension period.

It is not clear whether this is a negotiation strategy or a real policy shift, but the move is likely to further shake European corporate confidence. We expect the most likely scenario is that both parties can reach a www.xmhouses.compromise before the August 1 deadline, or that the tariff implementation date will be extended. Ultimately, we believe that both parties will reach an agreement with a tariff level of around 10%. Industry like automotive, steel, aluminum and copper may face higher tax rates, and we believe the pharmaceutical industry will currently avoid tariffs.

Even so, this result will curb economic activity in export-related industries, reduce business confidence, and put pressure on euro zone growth. However, Germany's expansionary fiscal policy, loose fiscal stance in other regions, low interest rates and a strong labor market should help support domestic demand. We expect the eurozone to grow at a full-year rate of just over 1%, and the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates again in September.

If the 30% tariff is implemented and continues, the eurozone is likely to fall into recession, when the ECB may need to cut further interest rates to around 1% in the www.xmhouses.coming months.

Berenberg Bank

No winner in the trade war. As the United States has launched conflicts with all trading partners at the same time, it will face damage from multiple directions. The EU accounts for only about 20% of U.S. goods imports. However,The 30% tariff on all EU goods alone may easily increase prices for U.S. consumers by 0.3 percentage points. Even without these new threats of tariffs, we expect U.S. inflation to rise to 3.4% by the fourth quarter (year-on-year), and the Fed has no room for a rate cut in the near future.

www.xmhouses.comprehensive Market Review

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, higher than 0.1% in May, in line with economists' expectations. However, from a year-on-year perspective, the overall inflation rate climbed to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. After the inflation data was released, it seemed difficult for the gold market to find a clear direction in its initial reaction. Although the market has fully digested the possibility of a rate cut in July, even as inflation data rises slightly, the market still expects the Fed to take a rate cut in September.

FPMarket chief analyst Aaron Hill said the CPI report is challenging for both trading and interpretation, as inflation is still rising but growth is lower than expected. He believes that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve at the end of this month, with investors generally expecting that the meeting will remain unchanged at a probability of up to 95%. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management, pointed out that although inflation gains roughly meet expectations, economic uncertainty remains high. If inflation is indeed under control, the Fed can start cutting interest rates, which may be as early as September. But if subsequent reports show different situations, the Fed will have to wait and see for a longer time.

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The tariff effect is emerging? CPI dispute has not subsided, US dollar hesitation, PPI may trigger divergence risk tonight

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Berenberg Bank: There is no winner in the trade war, and US inflation will further rise to...

Analyst James Hyerczyk: Service and housing costs drive up inflation, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is still www.xmhouses.complex.

UBS

Berenberg Bank

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CATEGORIES

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market news

The tariff effect is emerging? CPI dispute has not subsided, US dollar hesitation, PPI may trigger divergence risk tonight

Asian market market

Summary of institutional views

Berenberg Bank: There is no winner in the trade war, and US inflation will further rise to...

Analyst James Hyerczyk: Service and housing costs drive up inflation, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is still www.xmhouses.complex.

UBS

Berenberg Bank

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