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Palm oil rebound is approaching key resistance. Why is inventory pressure the real trial?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Palm oil rebound is approaching key resistance, why is inventory pressure the real judgment?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (September 8), the Malaysian derivatives exchange Bursa Malaysia palm oil main FCPOc3 contract adjusted within the day and closed at 4,488 ringgit/ton, up 40 ringgit from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.9%. The intraday price fluctuation range is between 4323-4582 ringgit, and the technical indicators show that the RSI (14) is 57.6, the market is in a neutral and strong range, the MACD columnar line narrows, and the short-term momentum has been repaired.
The linkage effect of the external market is significant
Today's rebound in palm oil is mainly driven by the strengthening of related oil varieties. The main soybean oil contract (DBYcv1) on the Dalian www.xmhouses.commodity Exchange rose 0.19%, while the palm oil contract (DCPcv1) rose 0.11% simultaneously; the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) soybean oil contract (BOcv1) rose 0.96%. As an important www.xmhouses.competitor in the global vegetable oil market, palm oil prices remain highly linked with alternative oils such as soybean oil and rapeseed oil. In addition, international crude oil prices rebounded more than $1 per barrel on Monday, after the market saw the increase in OPEC+ production as moderate, and concerns about the possible escalation of Russian crude oil sanctions support oil prices. The strengthening of crude oil has enhanced the attractiveness of palm oil in the biodiesel raw materials field.
Supply and demand fundamentals are intertwined
Although the external market provides support, Malaysia's local supply and demand structure is still loose. A well-known agency survey shows that the country's palm oil stockpile is expected to be for the sixth straight month in AugustIt is rising, although export demand has recovered, the growth rate of output still exceeds that of exports. At the currency level, the ringgit exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated by 0.12% today, causing the cost of USD palm oil to increase slightly for overseas buyers.
In terms of Chinese market demand, soybean imports in August reached 12.28 million tons, a slight increase of 1.15% year-on-year, setting a record for the same period in history. This data reflects that China's vegetable oil pressing demand remains resilient and indirectly supports the prospect of palm oil consumption.
Institutional view: short-term long but medium-term pressure
Analysts in many institutions are cautiously optimistic about the future market. A trader in Kuala Lumpur pointed out: "Today's rebound is mainly driven by external markets, but Malaysia's inventory pressure is still potentially negative. If exports do not improve significantly in the next few weeks, the price upward space may be limited." Another analyst added: "Crude oil price trend and the implementation of biodiesel policy will be key variables. If oil prices remain strong, the economic efficiency of palm oil biodiesel blending will increase."
From the technical perspective, a derivatives strategist said: "The current price is still near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The convergence of MACD negative value shows that the bear momentum is weak, but it is necessary to break through the resistance level of 4,580 ringgit to confirm the short-term trend reversal."
Focus on the linkage between inventory and external markets
Overall, the palm oil market is boosted by external oil and crude oil prices in the short term, but the pressure on local inventory has not yet been fundamentally alleviated. In the future, we need to focus on Malaysia's official inventory data in August, the sustainability of China's import demand, and the impact of OPEC+ policies on the crude oil market. Market volatility may rise, and traders are advised to closely track cross-component spreads and macro sentiment changes.
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