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Argentina market "bloody collapse" and a double kill of stocks and bonds, Mile may lose control in the midterm election
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The Argentine market "collapses", and there is a double kill of stocks and bonds, and Mile may lose control in the midterm election." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Argentina's YPF index rebounded 6.3% intraday in the early morning of Wednesday (September 10), and the exchange rate remained flat. Previously, the peso exchange rate against the US dollar fell by nearly 5.6%; the stock index fell by 13%. Opposition Peronists won the Buenos Aires election with a 13 percentage point wide margin. The market had previously expected that the vote gap would not be too large, and the Milei party was dragged down by corruption accusations; the October midterm election faced severe challenges.
On Tuesday night, the party to which Argentine President Javier Mile was hit hard by the opposition Peronists in local elections, causing the market to worry about the government's execution of the agenda for economic reform. The Argentine market fell sharply and the peso exchange rate hit a historical low.
The peso exchange rate against the US dollar fell 5.6% at one point, and the decline narrowed to 3.1% at the close, at 1,407 pesos; the local benchmark index (.MERV) fell 13%, and the Argentine Stock Index (.BKAR), listed on the US exchange, fell 18%. Some international bonds in Argentina hit the largest single-day decline since the $65 billion debt restructuring agreement was implemented in 2020. The reasons, market reactions and future prospects for this financial turmoil are as follows:
Milei government corruption scandal exacerbates the trust crisis
After Milei was elected president in December 2023, Argentina has been a hot sample of reforms in emerging markets, but in the past month, Milei's sister and core aide Karina Milei has been involved in corruption scandals (President's sister Karina was involved in corruption and received 3% kickbacks in medical procurement for disabled people (500,000-800,000 yuan per month), causing the government's support rate to plummet.
The market turmoil has caused the market to bear huge selling pressure, and the major Argentina stock index (.MERV) is exhaustedThe decline was about 20%, and international government bonds were sold; the pressure of depreciation increased sharply after BiSO canceled the exchange rate peg mechanism, and the authorities were forced to initiate foreign exchange market intervention.
It is worth mentioning that after Mile was elected president, due to the high control of central tax revenue, the central government's transfer payments to local governments have dropped significantly. In January 2024, the government achieved the first fiscal surplus in 12 years (518.4 billion pesos) in January 2024 (518.4 billion pesos) but the economic shock therapy has aggravated local economic problems and the poverty problems of the people have frequently occurred.
Election results exceeded expectations, investment banks urgently adjusted their ratings
Morgan Stanley: Before the election, it had warned that "if Mile's crushing defeat caused reforms to be blocked, international bonds may fall by 10 basis points"; on Monday, it urgently withdrew the "optimistic" rating of Argentine bonds given just a few days ago, reflecting concerns about policy continuity.
UBS: Shamara Khan, head of fixed income at emerging markets and Asia-Pacific, said he had previously been worried that the market was too optimistic about the election results, emphasizing that "the foreign exchange market is the focus, and volatility may hit Argentine assets chains" and that "the medium term election weight is higher, which will keyly affect asset performance in the www.xmhouses.coming months."
The pressure on the midterm elections is heating up, and the attitude of international institutions is to be clear
Midterm election warning: The results of this election indicate that Mile will face a tough battle in the national midterm elections on October 26 - his party needs to win enough seats to avoid the president's veto power being overturned by parliament.
IMF aid is doubtful: of the $20 billion aid project approved by the International Monetary Fund in April, about $15 billion has been allocated. The IMF had a positive attitude towards Mile’s reform, but the IMF did not respond to inquiries regarding whether the results of the election affect cooperation or adjustment projects.
Institutions warn of Peronism risks: Catherine Exum, co-head of sovereignty research at Gramessi Asset Management, pointed out that the election results warn investors that "Pionism, which advocates strong government intervention in the economy, has not yet withdrawn from the stage" and will have a reference significance for the October election and intensify market pressure.
The dilemma between foreign exchange intervention and depreciation
Government decision-making difficulties: Pimco Pramore Dawan pointed out that the government faces a two-choice option: allow peso to depreciate before the midterm elections, or use more foreign exchange reserves to increase intervention.
Intervention risk warning: Dawan warns that "intervention is likely to be counterproductive", which may undermine the IMF project and reduce the feasibility of foreign debt refinancing. "The more resources to defend the local currency, the fewer resources to repay the bond obligations, and the risk of default increases sharply."
The Minister of Economic Affairs expressed his opinion and market doubts: Minister of Economic Affairs Louis Caputo said that the "foreign exchange system remains unchanged", but Barclays analyst Ivan Stanbulski expects that "the pressure on foreign exchange depreciation will remain strong and reserves will continue to decline." If the sell-off continues, the market will question the "subsequent impact of forced depreciation before the election."
Regional Differences and Policy Continuity Outlook
RegionDomain voting differences: Some analysts believe that other regions of Argentina may not be as strong as those of Buenos Aires (which is a traditional Peronist vote bay). Policy continues expectations: Despite the severe economic difficulties, analysts still expect the Milei government to adhere to fiscal discipline plans.
JPMorgan Chase’s view: The policy portfolio that deals with political risks in the next few weeks will "critically shape medium-term inflation expectations and determine the success or failure of the stability plan."
The deep logic of plunge: political election failure resonates with structural vulnerability in economics
The fuse at the political level: Buenos Aires Province accounts for nearly 40% of the country's votes, which is a political vane. The election defeat indicates that Mile may lose control of parliament, and its market-oriented reforms (fiscal tightening, foreign exchange liberalization) may die; Peron's historical policy of "government interfering in the economy" (has caused high deficits and currency depreciation) has exacerbated the market's panic about policy regression.
Economic structural risks: Argentina has been trapped in the quagmire of "high foreign debt, low reserves, and high inflation" for a long time - foreign debt is US$75.5 billion (IMF debt exceeds 40 billion), and available foreign exchange reserves are only US$1.7 billion; the peso continues to depreciate this year, interfering with the consumption of reserves while pushing up the risk of default. The market is worried about returning to the vicious cycle of "welfare expansion-over-currency issuance", repeating the mistakes of debt default in 2001.
Short-term chain reaction: Institutional withdrawals optimistic ratings, corruption scandals weaken government credibility, IMF aid uncertainty has intensified, multiple factors trigger investors' withdrawal, amplifying the decline.
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