Gold prices remain stable at high levels, weak demand fears dragging oil prices down more than 2%

Basic news

On Friday (September 12 Beijing time), spot gold trading around $3,634/ounce, gold prices narrowed their decline on Thursday, staying near historical highs. Investors are still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week as weak U.S. employment data overwhelms concerns about stronger inflation data; U.S. crude oil trading around $62.20/barrel, oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday as concerns about possible weaker U.S. demand and widespread supply glut offset the threat to output from the Middle East conflict and the Ukrainian war.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed at a high on Thursday, with gains from Tesla and Micron boosting the market, while U.S. inflation and employment data strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month.

U.S. consumer prices rose higher than expected in August, with a year-on-year increase of seven months. Meanwhile, the number of initial unemployment claims rose to 263,000 in the week ending September 6, close to a four-year high.

AtsiSheth, chief credit officer for Moody's ratings in New York, said inflation remains stubborn...whether it is called 'stagflation', people have different definitions. But it is certain that we are in a different period from the past few years, with the labor market slowing significantly while inflation has not fallen back simultaneously, and Sheth expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week and another 25 basis points before the end of the year.

Frequency trading shows that traders are almost sure that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at next week's policy meeting and expect a 7% chance of a 50 basis point cut. A series of weak employment data released earlier and the producer price index (PPI) gains below the rate of gains in WednesdayExpectations also support the expectation of interest rate cuts.

Tesla jumped 6%, driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs. The Dow also closed at a new high, with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both rising more than 1%. Micron Technologies jumped 7.5% to $150.55 after Citi raised its target price for the memory chip maker from $150 to $175. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.9%, also hitting a new high.

WarnerBrosDiscovery soared 29% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance was preparing to buy the troubled media www.xmhouses.company with a cash-based offer.

The S&P 500 rose 0.85% to close at 6587.47 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.72% to 22,043.08 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.36% to 46,108.00 points.

Original fell 6.2%, giving up the 36% increase in the previous trading day. Tuesday's sharp rise injected new impetus into Wall Street's artificial intelligence market. Delta fell 1.55% after the www.xmhouses.company reiterated its full-year earnings expectations.

Gold market

Gold prices narrowed their declines on Thursday, staying near all-time highs, as weak U.S. jobs data overwhelmed concerns about stronger inflation data, and investors remained betting on the Fed to cut interest rates next week. Spot gold was $3,632.49 per ounce, down 0.2%. Gold prices hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. US gold futures for December delivery closed 0.2% lower at $3,673.60. Before the release of US economic data, gold prices fell as much as 0.6%.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said: "The number of initial unemployment claims climbed sharply last week to 263,000, a three-year high, while the core CPI month-on-month increase remained at a high of 0.3%, so gold was 'saved'," said TaiWong, an independent metals trader. "Recent price movements show fatigue among some buyers, but gold's outlook remains constructive in the www.xmhouses.coming months, limiting the room for a sharp pullback.

U.S. consumer price gains exceeded expectations in August, recording the biggest annual gain in seven months, while the number of initial unemployment claims last week was also The sharp jump highlights weak labor market conditions. Previous data showed that unexpected declines in U.S. producer prices in August reflected weaker profit margins and sluggish www.xmhouses.commodity costs in the service industry. Coupled with weak non-farm employment data last week and a revised data of 911,000 jobs in the 12 months to March, these data indicate that potential momentum of the economy is cooling down and increasing expectations for the Fed's easing policy.

The CME FedWatch data shows that the market has www.xmhouses.completely digested the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next Wednesday, and the possibility of a 50 basis point cut is slim.It's small. The Fed suspended its easing cycle in January due to weighing the impact of tariffs on inflation.

Gold prices have climbed 38% so far this year. Other aspects, spot silver was $41.57 per ounce, up 1%. Platinum fell 0.3% to $1,382.25; palladium rose 1.5% to $1,191.46. Oil market

Oil prices fell on Thursday, closing lower by more than 2%, as concerns about a possible weaker U.S. demand and widespread supply glut offset the threat to output from the Middle East conflict and the Ukrainian war.

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.7% to close at $66.37 a barrel. U.S. crude oil fell 2.0% to close at $62.37. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that the growth rate of world oil supply will exceed expectations this year due to OPEC+'s planned increase in production.

www.xmhouses.commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said: "The decline in oil prices is a response to negative news from the International Energy Agency, which indicates a large-scale oversupply in the oil market next year."

On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to increase production from October. But in another report, OPEC maintained non-OPEC's supply and demand forecasts this year on the grounds that demand is stable.

OpEC leader Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China will surge, with Saudi Aramco delivering about 1.65 million barrels in October, a sharp increase from 1.43 million barrels in September, several trade sources told Reuters on Thursday.

U.S. consumer prices hit the biggest increase in seven months in August, driven by rising housing and food costs. The surge in first-time unemployment benefits last week has continued to expect the Fed to cut interest rates next Wednesday, which could boost economic growth and oil demand.

The ECB held interest rates unchanged Thursday as expected, but did not disclose any clues to its next move. While investors remain betting that the EU economy will need more support next year, traders have reduced their bets on the ECB's interest rate cuts this cycle. The next policy adjustment is now considered a probability event of "coin toss".

Foreign exchange market

The US dollar weakened against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Thursday. The previously released U.S. inflation data for August was slightly hot, and the initial unemployment claims data were weaker than expected, strengthening the Fed's view that it would resume interest rate cuts next week.

In afternoon trading, the US dollar fell 0.3% against the yen to 147.09 yen, the euro rose 0.4% against the US dollar to 1.1738, and the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 97.51. The weakening of expectations that the ECB would further cut borrowing costs has also helped the euro to a certain extent. The ECB held interest rates as expected on Thursday and remained optimistic about economic growth and inflation. However, U.S. economic data is the main factor driving the euro's rise.

Data shows that the month-on-month increase in US consumer prices in August exceeded expectations, the same asThe largest increase in seven months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, up 0.2% in July. CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January, and 2.7% in July.

Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at Moneycorp, said: "CPI is not as high as the market expects. Ultimately, the biggest concern is that if the CPI accelerates beyond expectations, the dovish sentiment brought about by weak employment data will be disastrous. But this situation has not really happened. Everyone wants the CPI to soften, but the key is that the data has not really changed the direction of Fed interest rates."

More importantly, the data shows that in the week ended September 6, the number of people who initially requested state unemployment benefits soared by 27,000, to 263,000 after a seasonal adjustment. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously forecasts of 235,000 people.

After two bad U.S. job reports over the past few days, people have paid more attention to the labor market. In August, non-farm jobs increased by only 22,000, with a forecast of 75,000, while the employment data for the 12 months to March was revised down by 911,000.

After Thursday's data was released, the federal funds rate futures market believes that the probability of a 25 basis point cut this month is 91%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 9%. Same as expected later Wednesday.

The euro rose 0.2% against the yen to 172.78 yen. The euro was flat against the pound at 0.8614 pounds.

ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone continued to be in a "good condition", adding that inflation reached the level the central bank hoped. The central bank earlier kept interest rates unchanged at 2%.

The US dollar fell 0.5% to CHF 0.7956, while the pound rose 0.4% to CHF 1.3578 against the US dollar. Milan is taking a step further from becoming a Fed director, and the news seems to have not attracted people's attention. The Senate Financial www.xmhouses.committee voted to pass the nomination for Milan, but relevant lawmakers said it is far from certain whether the procedures can be www.xmhouses.completed in time and Milan will be allowed to attend the upcoming policy meeting.

International News

Zelensky met with Ukrainian Special Envoy Kellogg

On September 11, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky met with visiting Ukrainian Special Envoy Kellogg. The two sides had in-depth discussions on how to achieve peace and strengthen Ukrainian security. Zelensky said that the talks between the two sides focused on cooperation in multiple directions, including providing funds for the production and procurement of the "Patriot" air defense system under the "Ukraine's priority demand list" mechanism, and the bilateral agreement proposed by Ukraine to jointly produce drones and weapons with the United States. Zelensky stressed that Ukraine expects the positive response from the United States. Zelensky also said thatTripartite leaders’ meetings are the most efficient form of ending conflicts.

Lukashenko: I hope Trump is www.xmhouses.committed to ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

According to the news released on the website of Belarusian President Lukashenko said that he hopes that US President Trump can stick to his promise and be www.xmhouses.committed to ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. During the meeting, Lukashenko said that he hopes the US will continue to take actions to promote peace on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, be more objective and listen to opinions from all parties. The two sides also discussed issues such as White-US relations and US sanctions. Kerr said that the US hopes and is ready to make every effort to normalize bilateral relations. The US has officially lifted sanctions on Belarusian Airlines. Cole also read Trump's handwritten letter during the meeting.

The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the provisional appropriations bill next Monday

According to five U.S. Republican officials, Republican leaders are planning to vote on a temporary spending bill next week to extend government funds until November 21, Friday before Thanksgiving. House Appropriations www.xmhouses.committee Chairman Cole confirmed Thursday that a vote will be held next Monday.

Bester intends to add 1-2 people to the Fed chairman shortlist

The media quoted an unknown source from the U.S. Treasury Department as saying that Minister Scott Besent plans to add one to two people to the Fed chairman shortlist. Becent also met with Wash, Lindsey and Bullard, who had served as Fed directors. Becente can talk to officials on the 11-person list while waiting for the end of the Fed's silent period.

Hamas spokesperson: The conditions for the ceasefire in Gaza remain unchanged. The United States and Israel conspire to undermine the negotiation process.

Palestine Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) spokesman Fazi Balhum said in a televised speech that the Israeli attack on top Hamas officials in Doha, Qatar on the 9th will not change the conditions for Hamas to end the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Barhum said the Israeli attack target was a Hamas negotiator and they were discussing a ceasefire proposal made by US President Trump at the time of the attack. He also stressed that Israeli actions seriously undermined the entire negotiation process, and the US government was "a www.xmhouses.complicity of this crime."

OPEC still expects tight supply in the global oil market to be contrary to industry expectations

OPEC continues to predict that despite the organization's recovery of production, there will be severe supply shortages in the global oil market this year and next year, a view that conflicts with the industry-wide perspective. OPEC's monthly report shows that the organization and its partners need to supply an average of 43.45 million barrels of crude oil per day in the second half of this year, far higher than the 42.4 million barrels in August. Forecasts show that by 2026, the average daily demand for crude oil in the alliance will reach 43.1 million barrels. Last weekend, Saudi-led OPEC+ major member states agreed to start increasing production again in October to www.xmhouses.compete for market share. OPEC's analysis shows that they still have room to continue to increase production.

The Turkish Central Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to drive inflation back

The Turkish Central Bank issued an announcement stating that the Monetary Policy www.xmhouses.committee decided to lower the benchmark interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, a decrease of 250 basis points. In a statement, the central bank pointed out that although the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter was higher than expected, domestic demand was still weak in the end. The latest data shows that although the current demand environment helps to drive inflation back, the rise in food prices and the price inertia of some service items still put upward pressure on prices. The central bank will continue to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved. The central bank said the existing macroeconomic framework would support the continued decline in inflation, with the interim goal of reducing inflation to 5% within the foreseeable period.

Domestic News

Beijing plans to develop the general artificial intelligence industry innovation partner membership by the end of 2026 to 1,000 members.

At the 2025 China International Trade Fair "Beijing Artificial Intelligence Ecological Partner Conference" held on September 10, the "Beijing General Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Partner Program 2.0" (hereinafter referred to as "Partner Program 2.0") was officially released. Partner Program 2.0 clearly states that Beijing plans to develop the general artificial intelligence industry innovation partner membership through www.xmhouses.comprehensive assessment and dynamic entry and exit mechanisms by the end of 2026. According to reports, since the launch of the General Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Partner Program in May 2023, it has gathered more than 280 partner www.xmhouses.companies in five categories, including www.xmhouses.computing power, data, models, applications, and investment, sorted out the needs of 32 sub-field scenarios, provided about 8,500P www.xmhouses.computing power support for partner www.xmhouses.companies, and cooperated with more than 100 venture capital institutions; a total of nearly 200 typical cases of large-model industry applications have been formed, covering more than 10 fields such as finance, government affairs, culture and tourism, medical care, and marketing, and promoted the signing of cooperation and contracts for more than 40 projects.

The National Artificial Intelligence Application Pilot Base (Manufacturing Field) started construction in Shanghai

On September 11, the Shanghai "AI+Manufacturing" work promotion meeting and the launch ceremony of the National Artificial Intelligence Application Pilot Base (Manufacturing Field) were held at the Shanghai Electrical Training Base. At the meeting, the Shanghai "AI+Manufacturing" Industry Alliance was established. The alliance was initiated and established by Shanghai Electric Group, Municipal Industrial Internet Association, together with relevant units, aiming to support the construction of application pilot bases and promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing. The alliance has gathered more than 30 ecological partners including artificial intelligence enterprises, manufacturing enterprises, professional service providers and scientific research institutions, focusing on technological innovation and collaborative research, application implementation and value realization, ecological integration and standard co-construction, and construction of manufacturing upgrade support system, and strives to create a collaborative innovation industrial ecosystem.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The United States votes on the temporary appropriation bill next week, gold prices remain stable at high levels, and weak demand concerns dragging oil prices down by more than 2%". It is carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex.I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

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