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ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged, U.S. initial request data surges to nearly four-year highs

Wonderful introduction:

Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows, and since ancient times, there have been sorrowful moon and songs. But we never understood it, and we thought everything was just a distant memory. Because there is no real experience, there is no deep feeling in the heart.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The European Central Bank maintains the three key interest rates unchanged, and the U.S. initial request data surges to the highest level in the past four years." Hope it will be helpful to you! Original content is as follows:

On Friday, intraday trading in Asian markets, spot gold trading around $3,634/ounce, gold prices narrowed their declines on Thursday, staying near historical highs. Investors are still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week as weak U.S. employment data overwhelms concerns about stronger inflation data; U.S. crude oil trading around $62.20/barrel, oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday as concerns about possible weaker U.S. demand and widespread supply glut offset the threat to output from the Middle East conflict and the Ukrainian war.

The US dollar weakened against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Thursday, after the previously released U.S. inflation data for August was slightly hot, and initial unemployment claims data were weaker than expected, strengthening the Fed's view that it would resume interest rate cuts next week.

The ECB held interest rates unchanged on Thursday as expected and remained optimistic about economic growth and inflation. However, U.S. economic data is the main factor driving the euro's rise.

Data shows that the month-on-month increase in US consumer prices in August exceeded expectations, with the largest year-on-year increase in seven months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, up 0.2% in July. CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January, and 2.7% in July.

Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at North America, said: "CPI is not as high as the market expects. Ultimately, the biggest concern is that if CPI accelerates beyond expectations, the dovish sentiment brought about by weak employment data will be disastrous. But this situation has not really happened. Everyone wants CPI to soften, but the key is that the data has not really changed the direction of Fed interest rates.. "

More importantly, the data showed that the number of initial state unemployment benefits soared by 27,000 in the week ended September 6, reaching 263,000 after a seasonal adjustment. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously forecasts of 235,000.

After two bad U.S. jobs reports in the past few days, people have focused more on the labor market. Non-farm jobs rose by just 22,000 in August, a forecast of 75,000, while the 12-month jobs to March was revised down by 911,000.

After the data released on Thursday, the federal funds rate futures market believes that the possibility of a 25 basis point cut this month is 91%, the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is 9%. As expected late Wednesday.

Asian Market

China's www.xmhouses.commerce Department said on Friday that officials were not satisfied with the super high tariffs Mexico now imposed on China.

Mexico imposed a 50% tariff on Chinese cars, a blow to Beijing as its largest auto buyer tried to uphold a free trade agreement with the United States (US).

Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsushika said Friday that the joint statement was significant in view of the new U.S. tariff order, adding that there were no talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Besson on specific foreign exchange levels.

European Market

European Central Bank is the same The general expectation that keeping deposit rates unchanged at 2.00% marks the second consecutive stalemate. The Management www.xmhouses.committee reiterated its www.xmhouses.commitment to stabilize inflation at 2% in the medium term and highlighted the approach of “relying on data and meetings”. Policymakers stressed that they “have no upfront www.xmhouses.commitment to a specific interest rate path” so that they can be flexible with the upcoming data.

New employee forecasts show little change www.xmhouses.compared to June, with the overall inflation rate expected to average 2.1% (previously 2.0%) in 2025, 1.7% (1.6%) in 2026 and 1.9% (2.0%) in 2027.

The core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, then in 2026. The 2027 forecast has remained unchanged at 1.3%. The U.S. market has surged 27 to 263 in the week ended September 6, well above the expected 240, the highest since October 2021. The four-week moving average rose 10k to 241k, indicating a significant weak labor market situation.In the week of the 30th of the month, the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits remained stable at 1.939 million, and the average for the four-week period fell slightly to 1.936 million. Nevertheless, the increase in new unemployment benefits highlights the labor market is beginning to cool down more decisively, adding pressure to the Fed as it weighs the pace of policy easing.

U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August, with CPI rising by 0.4% month-on-month, while expectations were 0.3% month-on-month. The core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Housing costs rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the biggest contributor to the monthly increase, while food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month and energy rose by 0.7% month-on-month.

www.xmhouses.compared with the same period last year, the overall CPI accelerated from 2.7% in July to 2.9%, in line with expectations. The core inflation rate is stable at 3.1%, which is also in line with expectations. Data shows that even if the overall indicators rise slightly, the potential price pressure remains stable. Food inflation has risen by 3.2% over the past year, while energy prices have risen slightly by 0.2%. Overall, the report noted that inflation has been stable but has not accelerated.

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