Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Market Analysis】--EUR/USD Analysis: Stagnant Downward Trend Ahead of Key Eve
- 【XM Forex】--USD/MXN Forecast: Nears Key 21 Resistance
- 【XM Forex】--USD/JPY analysis: Bulls Ready to Take Off
- 【XM Market Analysis】--NZD/USD Analysis: Long-Term Lower Values Seen as Nervousne
- 【XM Market Analysis】--GBP/USD Forecast: Awaits Major Breakout
market analysis
CPI and unemployment benefits data push up Federal Reserve bets on interest rate cuts, dollar weakens
Wonderful introduction:
Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: CPI and unemployment benefits data push up the Federal Reserve's bet on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index remained weak, and the US dollar weakened against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Thursday. The previously released U.S. inflation data for August was slightly hot, and the initial unemployment claims data were weaker than expected, strengthening the Fed's view that interest rate cuts will resume next week. This trading day is 8 years old and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States in September, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.56. Although the current inflation data is stabilizing, the surge in the number of unemployment claims highlights the weak labor market. Traders' confidence in the Federal Reserve's at least 25 basis points next week is increasing. U.S. Treasury yields may gain some support near current levels, but unless labor market data stabilizes, the U.S. dollar index may test the support level of 97.109 again. In the short term, unless the US dollar index can clearly break through the resistance range of 97.859-98.100, it will be difficult for the bearish tone of the US dollar to change. From a technical analysis, the US dollar index is still under pressure: 97.859 has changed from support to resistance, and the next key support is this week's low of 97.253; if the support level is broken, the US dollar index may further fall to the main bottom position of 97.109. Currently, the US dollar index price continues to run below the 50-day moving average (98.100), and shorts still dominate below this key threshold.
1. Zelensky met with Ukrainian Special Envoy Kellogg
On September 11, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky met with visiting Ukrainian Special Envoy Kellogg. The two sides had in-depth discussions on how to achieve peace and strengthen Ukrainian security. Zelensky said that the talks between the two sides focused on cooperation in multiple directions, including providing funds for the production and procurement of the "Patriot" air defense system under the "Ukraine's priority demand list" mechanism, and the bilateral agreement proposed by Ukraine to jointly produce drones and weapons with the United States. Zelensky stressed that Ukraine expects the positive response from the United States. Zelensky also said that the tripartite leaders' meeting is the most efficient form of ending the conflict.
2. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriations bill next Monday
According to five U.S. Republican officials, Republican leaders are planning to hold conventions on a temporary spending bill next weekThe House voted to extend government funds to November 21, which is Friday before Thanksgiving. House Appropriations www.xmhouses.committee Chairman Cole confirmed Thursday that a vote will be held next Monday.
3. The Turkish Central Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to drive inflation back.
The Turkish Central Bank issued an announcement stating that the Monetary Policy www.xmhouses.committee decided to lower the benchmark interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, a decrease of 250 basis points. In a statement, the central bank pointed out that although the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter was higher than expected, domestic demand was still weak in the end. The latest data shows that although the current demand environment helps to drive inflation back, the rise in food prices and the price inertia of some service items still put upward pressure on prices. The central bank will continue to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved. The central bank said the existing macroeconomic framework would support the continued decline in inflation, with the interim goal of reducing inflation to 5% within the foreseeable period.
4. The ECB remained unmoved and optimistically looked forward to downplaying the expectation of interest rate cuts
The ECB decided to maintain the key interest rate at 2% at the meeting of the Management www.xmhouses.committee on September 11, 2025, continuing the policy of suspending interest rate cuts since June. Previously, the ECB had cut interest rates by half over the past year. President Christina Lagarde said at a press conference: "We continue to be in a good state, inflation is at the level we hope, and the economy in the region is performing soundly." She pointed out that the eurozone economy has shown resilience, manufacturing and services continue to expand, and private consumption provides support for growth. Lagarde stressed that global trade uncertainty has eased, especially after the EU reached a partial tariff agreement with the United States, the risk of trade retaliation has dropped significantly. This provides the ECB with more time to assess external factors such as U.S. tariffs, increased German government spending, the upcoming Fed rate cuts and the impact of French political turmoil on the eurozone economy.
5. The situation in France and the euro zone bond market
The recent political chaos in France has pushed up the country's government bond yields, attracting market attention. Lagarde said that the eurozone sovereign bond market is currently “ordered and liquidity smooth”, implying no immediate intervention is needed. Economists believe that given the current situation of high debt and low growth in France, the current situation does not meet the conditions for central bank intervention. French political risks may be transmitted to other countries in the euro zone through financial markets, increasing the www.xmhouses.complexity of the European Central Bank's future policy formulation. Economists from Morgan Stanley said that volatility in the French bond market may have a greater impact on the eurozone economy by early 2026 and need to be closely monitored.
Institutional View
1. Deutsche Bank: ECB forecasts suggest that low interest rates will continue until 2027
Deutsche Bank analyst Wall said in a report that the latest forecasts from the ECB show that interest rates may remain at lower levels for a longer period of time. On the one hand, staff’s recent forecasts for overall inflation have been slightly raised, which means inflation in 2026The goal is lower than expected. However, lowering the core inflation forecast to 1.8% in 2027 suggests that this lower-than-expected situation may be extended. "This may have a dovish impact on monetary policy," he said. However, the ECB is not in a hurry to make a judgment and the interest rate suspension may continue.
2. Dutch International: The pound is still at risk of falling before the budget is released.
Dutch International Group analyst Pesolai said that before the fall budget was announced on November 26, the pound is still at risk of falling due to concerns about the sustainability of the UK's fiscal. He said the pound has recently strengthened against the euro as long-term UK government bonds rebounded from last week's sell-off. www.xmhouses.compared to the euro and the dollar, the pound is more sensitive to long-term Treasury sell-offs, which means risks remain before the budget is announced. However, during a period of stable Treasury bonds, short-term interest rates rose, making selling of the pound "expensive" due to the Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rate cuts.
3. Rabobank: Russian drone entry into Poland may boost the US dollar
Raobank analyst Jane Foley said that the Russian drone entry into Polish airspace may provide some support to the US dollar because the US dollar's safe-haven status has not changed. At the request of Poland, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Thursday. "This reopens the debate around the dollar's safe-haven status," Foley said. She said it is necessary to worry about this situation given the relatively large spread of credit defaults in the United States. However, Foley said the depth and liquidity of the U.S. asset market and the influence of the U.S. dollar as a trading currency mean that even if the status of the U.S. dollar or U.S. Treasury declined slightly, it would be difficult to replace their position as a safe haven currency.
(Editor: Xiao Qi
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: CPI and unemployment benefits data push up the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bet, and the US dollar weakens". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thank you for your support!
Living in the present, don't waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here