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The data is not amazing, but the fluctuations are amplified. The next step for the US dollar depends on these three things

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The data is not amazing, but the fluctuations are amplified. The next step of the US dollar depends on these three things." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced August inflation at 20:30 on Thursday (September 11). In August, the US CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, with a monthly rate of 0.4%, and the core CPI remained unchanged by 3.1% year-on-year, mainly driven by the rise in residential, food and gasoline; on the same day, there were 263,000 initial unemployment benefits, which was higher than expected, indicating that the employment margin cooled down. The market is still generally betting that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp next week (the probability is about 92%), and the cumulative interest rate cut this year will be between 50-75bp, depending on the subsequent core monthly performance.

The market was consistently expected before the announcement: the overall CPI was 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July; the monthly rate was expected to be 0.3%; the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year and the monthly rate was 0.3%. At the interest rate level, CMEFedWatch shows that the market price of a 25bp interest rate cut next week is about 92%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75bp this year is about 70%.

The macro narrative focuses on two points: one is whether www.xmhouses.commodity inflation driven by tariffs rises again; the other is whether employment has a marginal cooling, which determines the extent of interest rate cuts this year. At the time of publication, the US dollar index weakened slightly during the day, with the news caliber at 97.75, a drop of about 0.06%.

Data Performance and Interpretation

The overall CPI in August was 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, higher than 2.7% in July; the monthly rate was 0.4%, faster than 0.2% in July. Core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with July and forecasts. Sub-item shows that the residential index rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the biggest contribution to the "full" rise in the month; the food index increased by 0.5% month-on-month, of which "at-home food" +0.6% and "going out".Meals" +0.3%; energy index +0.7% month-on-month, and gasoline price +1.9% month-on-month. This set of data conveys two meanings: First, there is still upward pressure on energy and some durable goods on the www.xmhouses.commodity side, which is in line with the logic of "gradual transmission of tariffs" and cost reflux; Second, the stickiness of core services is still there, and the stickiness of residential types is difficult to retreat in the short term. The monthly rate is higher than the expected 0.3%, making the climb of total inflation more sustainable. Overall, the www.xmhouses.combination of "core does not decrease, the total item rises" has a constraint on the urgency of continuous significant interest rate cuts this year.

Labor market: Marginal signal of initial request

The number of initial unemployment claims announced on the same day was 263,000, higher than the previous value of 236,000 (corrected from 237,000) and worse than the market expectations. 35,000; the number of consecutive applicants after the seasonal adjustment was 1.939 million, which remained the same month-on-month; the insured unemployment rate after the seasonal adjustment was 1.3%. This shows that the labor market is cooling moderately, but it is not a steep decline. If the rebound of inflation monthly rate and the weakening of the initial request are www.xmhouses.combined into a www.xmhouses.complex situation of "cooling growth parameters and resilience in price parameters", it strengthens the path dependence of "subsiding by September 25bp, and the pace of the year still depends on new data".

Official statements and policy framework

Before the silent period, officials had obvious differences in views. Goolsbee believes that inflation may rebound again; Kashkari emphasizes that tariffs have caused www.xmhouses.commodity inflation to rise, and it is necessary to observe whether it is sustainable; in contrast, Daly judges that the price increase caused by tariffs is more like " The second-time shock, Waller is more direct, treating it as a "short-term fluctuation", and inflation is expected to return to the track close to 2% in about six months. www.xmhouses.comprehensive interpretation: The www.xmhouses.committee is closer to the consensus of "reducing one level first, then looking at the data", but the key to whether the cumulative drop to 50bp or 75bp this year is whether the core monthly rate can fall to around 0.2% in the next few months.

Instant market reaction

1) USD Index: From a technical perspective, the 30-minute chart shows that the USD Index fell from a high of 98.0759, and a physical long negative appeared after the release. The Bollinger Band's middle rail is 97.8766, the upper rail is 98.0309, and the lower rail is 97.7223, the price is close to the lower rail, and the short-term bias is short-term. RSI (14) Reading 32 .3425, approaching the edge of the weak zone; the MACD column turns green and expands downward, momentum tends to be bearish. Logically, inflation meets expectations but the monthly rate is high and the initial request weakens, and the US dollar shows a rationalized reaction of "down first and then fluctuation".

2) US Treasury yield: the total monthly rate of 0.4% makes it difficult for the long end to price www.xmhouses.completely according to the dovish path, but initial request deteriorates and provides safe-haven buying. The expectation curve takes the "front-end down and long end range" as the first reaction, and the sustainable upward trend of the nominal long end still needs to be confirmed by the subsequent core monthly rate.

3) Gold: The fall in the US dollar and the hesitation of the nominal interest rate are conducive to the strengthening of gold prices in the short term; but if core inflation maintains resilience in subsequent data, it is difficult for real interest rates to fall rapidly, and the upward elasticity of gold prices will be limited.

4) Equity market: If the "monthly inflation rate is strong" and "first request to weaken", the style of the equity market may be biased towards a defensive configuration with "high-quality, stable profits"; but for the growth sector, if the long-term interest rate maintains the range, the valuation pressure is controllable.

5) Exchange rate level: For the main non-US, short-term drive still www.xmhouses.comes from the US macro, not the fundamentals of the opponent's market. The www.xmhouses.competition between the US dollar in the 97.5-98.0 range will become the anchor for foreign exchange fluctuations in the next one to two days.

Differences between institutions and retail investors

Institutions are more concerned about "when will core services—especially residential items—become significantly downward." Under the premise that FedWatch gives a 92% probability, their judgment on whether the cumulative amount of 50bp or 75bp this year will revolve around the threshold of core monthly rate falling to 0.2%. Retail investors are more focused on the impact of "oil prices and gasoline" on daily costs, and tend to attribute the total rebound of 0.4% that month to energy, which has increased their preference for gold in a phased manner, but their views on the US dollar are quite different. Futures pricing shows that if the core monthly rate of the following two months is less than 0.3%, the cumulative drop to 75bp this year is more likely to be reiterated; on the contrary, if the monthly rate hovers between 0.3% and 0.4%, the market may tilt towards the cumulative 50bp.

Future expectations and risks

The next key observation points are: First, whether core service items can slow down widely from September to October, especially the high-frequency rental indicators of residential items; second, employment and demand-side re-verification - initial request has been revealed. If the subsequent slowdown in employment reports and retail sales will open up space for a deeper path to interest rate cuts; third, whether tariff-related www.xmhouses.commodity prices continue.

The risk is that once oil prices and food prices continue to push the total monthly rate to remain in the range of 0.3%-0.4%, and the core decline has not met expectations for a long time, the market will lower its bet on the cumulative interest rate cut this year, and the US dollar's stay below 97.7 may be limited. On the other hand, if the core quickly falls and the initial request rises simultaneously with the renewal request, the front end of the curve will continue to decline, with gold and long-term debts high, and the US dollar is expected to retreat to the lows of 97.5849 and 97.2409 for the second time.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: The data is not amazing, but the fluctuations are amplified. The next step of the US dollar depends on these three things". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The data is not amazing, but the fluctuations are amplified. The next step for the US dollar depends on these three things

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The data is not amazing, but the fluctuations are amplified. The next step for the US dollar depends on these three things

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