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The US data is "fighting" again, inflation cannot fall, unemployment cannot fall, what should the market do?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: US data is "fighting" again, inflation cannot go down, unemployment cannot go down, what should the market do?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday (September 11), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025 and the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending September 6, which aroused strong response in the market. In August, CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, the highest level since January this year, with the previous value of 2.7%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, 0.3% higher than expected and 0.2% previous value of 0.2%. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) remained flat at 3.1% year-on-year and rose 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations. The number of initial unemployment benefits soared to 263,000, far exceeding the market expectations of 235,000, the highest in a single week since October 2021, indicating a significant slowdown in the labor market.

These data indicate that inflationary pressures continue to be high, and deterioration in the labor market has exacerbated market concerns about stagflation. This article will analyze the market impact of this data in depth from the perspectives of market immediate market reactions, asset price performance, impact on the Fed's expected interest rate cuts, and future trend outlook.

Instant market reaction: Risk aversion sentiment warms up and asset price differentiation

After the data was released, the market quickly digested the dual signals of high inflation and weak labor market. The U.S. stock market responded cautiously, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fluctuating slightly after opening, down 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, reflecting investors' concerns about the risk of stagflation. The US dollar index (DXY) fell rapidly from 97.93 to 97.73, a drop of about 0.2%, indicating that market expectations for the Fed's easing policy have increased. In the U.S. bond market, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 1.26% in the day, with the latest 3.998%, hitting the beginning of April.The decline below 4% for the first time has shown that the bond market's concerns about inflationary pressure have eased, but the steeper yield curve (the biennium-ten-year spread widened to 51.3 basis points) suggests that the market remains divided on the long-term economic outlook.

The precious metal market has reacted particularly violently. Spot gold prices rose by about $20 after the data was released, reaching a maximum of $3634.15/ounce, but then fell back to $3630.13/ounce, a day drop of 0.28%, indicating that safe-haven demand has stabilized after a brief burst. The main force of www.xmhouses.comEX gold futures was US$3667.20 per ounce, down 0.40% during the day. Spot platinum broke through the $1390.00/ounce mark, with the latest report of $1390.20/ounce, up 0.34% during the day, reflecting the sensitivity of the precious metals market to inflation and economic uncertainty. In the foreign exchange market, the euro/dollar fell below the 1.17 mark, with the latest 1.1690, and the US dollar/yen broke through the 148.00 mark, at 148.09, up 0.44% during the day, overlapping with the option expiration range (147.00-147.50), indicating that option delivery has exacerbated exchange rate fluctuations.

www.xmhouses.compared with market expectations before the data was released, investors were previously affected by Trump's tariff remarks and generally expected that the CPI may rise in August than expected, and some institutions even bet on the core CPI to exceed 3.2%. However, the actual data meets expectations, and the core CPI is stable at 3.1%, but the initial data far exceeds expectations, breaking the market's optimistic assumption of labor market resilience, risk appetite cools down rapidly, and safe-haven assets strengthen briefly.

Federal interest rate cut expectations: markets are entangled in the risk of stagflation

The high CPI data in August indicates that inflation pressure is still stubborn, especially the core CPI has remained at 3.1% for the third consecutive month, indicating potential inflation stickiness. The increase in housing costs by 0.4% is the main driving force for the month-on-month increase in CPI. The annual rate of food CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.2%, and the annual rate of energy CPI turned positive to 0.2%. Among the core products, the annual CPI rate of used cars and trucks rose to 6%, and the annual CPI rate of new cars rose to 0.7%, reflecting the rise in pressure on the demand side. The number of initial unemployment benefits soared to 263,000, www.xmhouses.combined with the recent downward revision of non-agricultural employment (overestimated 911,000 jobs in 12 months) and the nearly stagnant employment growth in August, the signal of weak labor market is becoming increasingly obvious.

The market's adjustment to the Fed's interest rate cut has become the focus. According to the CMEFedWatch tool, after the data was released, the market's expected probability of a 25 basis point cut in September fell from 65% to 60%, reflecting the constraints of high inflation on easing policies, but the deterioration of the labor market still kept the interest rate cut expectations dominated. In contrast, before the data was released, the market's expected rate cut in September was as high as 70%, and some investors even bet on a 50 basis point rate cut. This division is highlighted by the institutional viewpoint. Analyst at a well-known institution said: "The CPI in August meets expectations, but the deterioration of core inflation stickiness and initial data indicates an increase in stagflation risk.The Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts to the fourth quarter and may remain unchanged in September. "Retail investors' sentiment is even more pessimistic. Some traders www.xmhouses.commented: "The data is too bad at first request, and the economic slowdown is obvious. The Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates, but inflationary pressure makes them embarrassed. "Another retail investor said: "There is no surprise in the CPI data, and it is normal for gold to rise and fall. In the short term, the US dollar may fluctuate. Pay attention to the trend of US Treasury yields. ”

Changes in market sentiment: From inflation concerns to stagflation panic

Data sub-items show that the main sources of inflation pressure are concentrated in the housing and services industries, and the deterioration of the labor market has exacerbated the market's concerns about the economic slowdown. The core service CPI stabilized at 3.9% year-on-year, but the prices of airfares, used cars and trucks rose month-on-month, indicating that the demand side is still resilient. However, the prices of medical care, entertainment and www.xmhouses.communications fell month-on-month, and www.xmhouses.combined with the high initial data, it indicates that consumer demand may face further pressure. The impact of Trump's tariff remarks has gradually emerged. Institutional analysis pointed out that enterprises' early low-priced inventory was exhausted, and imported inflation may push up the prices of core www.xmhouses.commodities in the next few months. An analyst at an investment bank said: "Inflation pressure will not subside in the short term, and the impact of tariffs may explode in the fourth quarter, and the core CPI may exceed 3.2%. ”

www.xmhouses.compared with historical trends, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the market generally expected that the Federal Reserve would suspend interest rate cuts and even raise interest rates due to rising inflation expectations and labor market resilience. However, the August 2025 data showed that inflation was high but not out of control, and the labor market deteriorated significantly, and market sentiment shifted from "inflation trading" to "stagflation trading". Retail investors' views reflect this change, and traders www.xmhouses.commented: "The stock market is under pressure in the short term, and gold and US bonds are the first choice for safe-haven aversion, but in the long run, the risk of economic slowdown is greater. "Institutions are more concerned about structural issues. An analyst pointed out: "The steeper yield curve shows that the market is still confident in long-term growth, but short-term inflation and employment data are inconsistent, so we need to be wary of the rebound of US Treasury yields. ”

Asset price performance: long-short game intensifies

The cautious reaction of the stock market reflects the suppression of risky assets by concerns about stagflation. The technology stocks and consumer goods sectors have fallen significantly, down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. The brief surge in gold and platinum indicates that risk aversion is heating up, but the decline shows that the market's expectations of hard landing risk have not yet dominated www.xmhouses.completely. In the foreign exchange market, the Australian dollar/USD and USD/CAD fluctuate within the option expiration range (0.6555-0.6650 and 1.3760-1.3910) The drama shows the short-term disturbance effect of option delivery on the exchange rate. The US dollar/JPY breaks through the 148.00 mark, reflecting the brief weakening of the market's demand for the yen safe-haven.

The decline in US Treasury yields is an important signal of market sentiment. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 4%, a significant decline from the July high of 4.679%, reflecting the brief downward revision of the market's inflation expectations. However, the steepening of the yield curve shows that investors are more confident about long-term economic growth, while being vigilant about short-term inflation pressure. A bond trader www.xmhouses.commented: "U.S.The downward trend in bond yields is a response that CPI meets expectations, but the deterioration in the initial data may push up risk-haven demand, and yield fluctuations may intensify in the short term. ”

Future trend outlook: dual challenges of inflation and economic slowdown

Looking forward, the market needs to pay close attention to the subsequent evolution of inflation and labor market data. In the short term, high inflation and weak labor market may keep the Fed from maintaining interest rates at its September meeting, but the probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter remains, with the benchmark scenario of 25 basis points. In the medium term, the impact of Trump's tariff remarks may gradually emerge in the fourth quarter, and the core www.xmhouses.commodity CPI (such as home appliances and clothing) may rebound due to imported inflation, pushing up the overall price level. Energy prices are subject to slowing global demand and OPEC +The impact of production increase may continue to be sluggish, but the base effect weakens or limits the downward space for inflation.

In terms of asset allocation, risky assets may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the attractiveness of gold and US Treasury as safe-haven assets has increased, but we must be wary of the pushing effect of inflation rebound on yields. The US dollar index may be under pressure due to the rising expectations of interest rate cuts, and the euro/USD and USD/JPY may intensify in the options expiration range in the short term. Institutional opinion suggests: "Investors should pay attention to core CPI and non-agricultural data. They can increase their holdings of gold and defensive assets in the short term, and in the medium term, they should be wary of the impact of inflation rebound on US Treasury and USD. "Retail investors are more concerned about trading opportunities. Traders said: "Gold can go long in the short term, and the US dollar/JPY may pull back, and pay attention to the next wave of U.S. Treasury yields. ”

In summary, the release of CPI and initial data in August has exacerbated the market's concerns about stagflation, and high inflation and deterioration of the labor market have formed double pressure. The Federal Reserve's policy path will remain cautious in the contradiction between inflation and growth, and market sentiment may swing between short-term risk aversion and long-term vigilance. Investors need to closely track subsequent data and geopolitical dynamics to cope with market uncertainty.

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