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The US CPI is coming to knock on the door, how can the Australian dollar/USD be gone?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US CPI is www.xmhouses.coming to knock on the door, how can the Australian dollar/US dollar go?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (September 11), the Australian dollar/USD retreated from the 10-month high of 0.6635 the previous day, and the US market tug-of-war around the 0.6600 line before the market. With the US CPI announced in August at 20:30, the US dollar index DXY strengthened slightly, approaching the three-day high of 98.00, and the Australian dollar/USD exchange rate is under pressure but is still in an upward channel.
Fundamentals:
The focus is on inflation. According to consensus expectations, the US CPI may rise to 2.9% year-on-year in August, higher than 2.7% in July; the core CPI is expected to remain 3.1% year-on-year. At the monthly level, both Toutiao and Core are expected to grow by 0.3%. Market analysis believes that tariff transmission will keep www.xmhouses.commodity prices moving forward, and even if service inflation slows down marginally, the overall CPI monthly rate may jump to 0.4%. Before the data was released, the US dollar index stabilized around 98.00, causing general fluctuations in the United States.
In terms of interest rate pricing, the market believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut by 25 basis points next week is almost a foregone conclusion, with a probability of about 92%; but the probability of a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year is only about 70%, and the path remains to be verified. Officials also expressed differentiation: Austan Goolsbee said inflation may rebound, Neel Kashkari emphasized that www.xmhouses.commodity inflation needs to be tracked due to tariffs; Mary Daly believes that the relevant price increase is more like a one-time impact; Christopher Waller bluntly stated that this is a "small episode", and is expected to return to nearly 2% in about six months. The greater the differences, the more anchoring the CPI tonight is.
Variables on the Australian side are also critical. Consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in September, www.xmhouses.compared with the previous value of 3.9%. Expected upward movement often restricts linkageReserves continue to be easing, which makes the RBA not necessarily rush to cut interest rates in subsequent meetings. For the Australian dollar, two internal and external narratives—the rise in local inflation expectations and the landing point of US inflation—are working together to shape intraday volatility.
Technical:
Four-hour K-line (240 minutes) shows that bulls still have the upper hand but the momentum slows down at a high level. The Bollinger band has a mild opening, with upper rail 0.6633, middle rail 0.6591, lower rail 0.6548, the latest price is 0.6608, and it is still standing above the middle rail and close to the upper rail. Yesterday, the height was 0.6635 and the entity narrowed, showing that the profit was settled in the superposition area of the upper track and the front high.
MACD's DIFF is 0.0015, DEA is 0.0016, and histogram is -0.0003. The kinetic energy turns from positive to negative but the amplitude is extremely small. The top divergence has not yet been established; as long as there is no effective dead cross and the price does not break through the middle track, the definition of the upward trend remains unchanged. RSI (14) is at 59.7333, falling from the peak of 70, and it has not lost its strength but has cooled down. In terms of price, the upper resistance focuses on 0.6633/0.6635; if the volume breaks up and closes on it, the Bollinger band may further open. Pay attention to 0.6591 below as the watershed of short-term strength and weakness, and below is 0.6548; then look at 0.6483 and 0.6462.
Previous observation of market sentiment:
The risk of the event is approaching, and traders tend to "lock profit first, then wait for signals", and the market switches to the mean regression rhythm. The US dollar's stabilization around 98.00 raised nominal pressure, but the Australian dollar is still relatively resilient: first, the upward shift of local inflation expectations to marginal support for interest rate spreads, and second, US inflation will determine the next step for US Treasury yields and the US dollar. The option side "important volatility increases - directional position converges", and 0.6600 therefore becomes the psychological position of emotional anchoring. The overall sentiment is relatively neutral, and the volume and price structure is more like the short-term squeeze in the trend rather than the top divergence.
Future Outlook:
The two short-term (24-48 hours) paths are more representative. First, if the monthly CPI rate reaches or is higher than 0.3%, the core is not weaker than 3.1%, and even the monthly headline rate reaches 0.4%, the US dollar is boosted, and the Australian dollar/USD may be retracement test 0.6591. Once it effectively falls below and is accompanied by the MACD dead cross, the pullback may extend to 0.6548; however, before the main trend is broken, it is more inclined to be "healthy backtest". Second, if the CPI is lower than expected (monthly growth rate is less than 0.3% or less than 2.9%/3.1% year-on-year), the market may strengthen its bet on a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points this year. The US dollar weakens, and the exchange rate is expected to restart upward and challenge 0.6633/0.6635. If the closing stabilizes above, the probability of the trend continuing will increase significantly.
The median line (1-3 weeks), the key is still inflation stickiness. If it is just a short "small episode" as Waller said, then slides back to nearly 2%, the US dollar may weaken in the medium term, and the Australian dollar will benefit from the resonance of interest rate spreads and risk preferences, and the exchange rate is likely to maintain an upward channel; if the concerns of Goolsbee and Kashkari dominate, www.xmhouses.commodity inflationThe "secondary impact" extends the stickiness, US Treasury yields may rise again, the US dollar is firm, the upward space of the Australian dollar/US dollar is limited, and it may turn into a box of 0.6548-0.6635.
Price and rhythm calibration: www.xmhouses.combined with the resonance of the graph and indicators, 0.6633/0.6635 is the "confirmation position". You need to see the entity K-line close above this range and turn from negative to positive with the MACD bar chart to be judged as an effective breakthrough; if it is only the shadow line touching and then falling back, it is likely to form the rhythm of "false breakthrough-falling and consolidation". 0.6591 is the "observation position", and the horizontal consolidation of the price above it is usually regarded as a strong digestion; once the four-hour closing falls below and two consecutive negative lines of expansion appear, the signal is upgraded to "trend downgrading-turning into range". 0.6548 is the "defensive position", and the loss of this position will destroy the rising structure since the end of August, and the technical definition must be adjusted from the "upward channel" to the early stage of "box" or "descending wedge".
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: The US CPI is www.xmhouses.coming to knock on the door, how to get the Australian dollar/USD?", which was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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