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market analysis
Global market outlook during the policy-intensive period
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Global market outlook during the policy-intensive period". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Next week (October 27-31), the global market will usher in a "super intensive period" of policies and events: China-US economic and trade consultations, "one bank, one bureau, one meeting" gathered at the Financial Street Forum to release policy signals, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan announced interest rate resolutions on the same day, and the APEC summit focused on new paths for Asia-Pacific cooperation. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown has led to the release of core inflation data facing suspense. The intersection of data vacuum and policy games will significantly amplify market fluctuations. Investors need to pay close attention to key meeting statements and negotiation progress to capture structural opportunities amid uncertainty.
Consultations in progress
From Saturday (October 25) to next Monday (October 27), Vice Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to continue economic and trade consultations with the United States in Malaysia. The U.S. representatives were Finance Minister Bessant and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides launched a dialogue around the core issues of Sino-US economic and trade relations.
Financial Street opens: Policy signals resonate with Sino-US negotiations
The core highlight of Monday (October 27) is the opening of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting (until October 30). Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, Li Yunze, Director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory www.xmhouses.commission, will attend and deliver keynote speeches. The topic activities focus on "global financial development under innovation, change and reshaping".
At the same time, China announced the year-on-year profit data of industrial enterprises above designated size in September. www.xmhouses.combined with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size last month, we can focus on observing whether the driving force for corporate profit growth has shifted from volume increase to price repair and profit margin improvement.
In Europe, Germany announced the IFO business climate index in October and the UK announced the CBI retail sales in October.The sales difference provides evidence for the strength of the economic recovery in the Eurozone and the UK.
Consumption data leads the way: Multi-country confidence index reveals economic resilience
On Tuesday (October 28), global consumer data was intensively released. Australia released the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending October 26. Germany released the Gfk consumer confidence index for November.
The key data of the day was the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October. Disturbed by the absence of U.S. data, the index has become a core clue for observing the momentum of U.S. economic growth.
The Bank of Canada takes the lead: Inflation data and interest rate decisions www.xmhouses.come first
On Wednesday (October 29), US API and EIA crude oil inventory data were released successively. It is necessary to pay attention to the short-term guidance of inventory changes on international oil prices.
Australia released third-quarter CPI data, which serves as the core reference for policy adjustments by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The strength of the data will affect the direction of the Australian dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Bank of Canada interest rate decision and monetary policy report. Previously, on September 17, the Bank of Canada had lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
Super Resolution Day: The three major central banks announced interest rates together with the APEC Summit
Thursday (October 30) is the absolute focus of this week, with global policy and the geopolitical agenda reaching a climax.
Many central banks will announce interest rate resolutions: The Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate resolution, and the market expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. At the same time, the market will pay attention to whether the meeting will mention the end timetable for the balance sheet reduction process; the Bank of Japan is expected to keep the base interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain the stability of the three major interest rates, of which the refinancing rate will remain at 2.15%. At the same time, central banks of various countries will hold press conferences.
In terms of economic data, the United States, Germany, and France simultaneously released GDP data, and Germany will also disclose CPI data. However, the originally planned release of the U.S. third-quarter core PCE data (the most important inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) still faces the risk of delay caused by the government shutdown.
Another major event of the day was South Korea’s hosting of the 2025 APEC Leaders’ Summit. Leaders from many countries gathered to focus on the theme of “The Sustainable Tomorrow We Build—Connection, Innovation, and Prosperity.” Artificial intelligence cooperation, supply chain resilience and inclusive growth became core topics. The participation of executives from technology giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft may generate new signals for industry cooperation.
Data ending: PMI and inflation data set the mood at the end of the month
On Friday (October 31), global macro data came to an end. China released October PMI data, which is an important reference as the center of stock market valuation.
Europe and Japan simultaneously announced year-on-year CPI data for October, providing an inflationary basis for subsequent policy adjustments by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
In the United States, it was originally planned to release September PCE price index data and Chicago PMI, but whether they can be released as scheduled still depends on the progress of the government shutdown. If data continues to be absent, the market will rely further on privateDepartmental data and central bank officials' speeches determine the direction of the economy, exacerbating short-term fluctuations.
Risk warning: Three major variables hide market disturbances
In addition to core policies and data, investors need to be wary of three major potential risks: First, failure to reach consensus in economic and trade negotiations will suppress sentiment in risk assets.
Second, if the differences between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on policy paths are highlighted at the press conference, market expectations may be quickly revised, triggering sharp short-term fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and the euro.
Third, if the government shutdown continues to exceed expectations, it will lead to more data delays, aggravate market information asymmetry, and increase the attractiveness of safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the market expects that the U.S. government will continue to shut down next week. If the U.S. government resumes operations early, it will also have an impact on the financial market.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Global Market Outlook during the Policy-Intensive Period". It was carefully www.xmhouses.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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