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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
-
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
-
2016最佳本土 客户服务
-
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
-
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
FinTech Age Awards颁发
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
-
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
-
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
-
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
-
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
-
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
-
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
-
金融行业的佼佼者
-
认证最优金牌级别
-
2014年首届亚军
-
Finance Magnates 颁发
-
Finance Magnates 颁发
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
-
COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
-
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
-
Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
-
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
-
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
-
2016最佳本土 客户服务
-
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
-
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
-
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
-
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
-
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
-
投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
-
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
-
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
FinTech Age Awards颁发
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
-
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
-
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
-
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
-
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
-
2015年最佳本地客户服务
-
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
-
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
-
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
-
金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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CATEGORIES
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market news
Gold and US dollars tumble, U.S. stocks soar, the Fed’s QT policy reaches an inflection point
Wonderful introduction:
If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Gold and US dollars plummeted, US stocks soared, and the Fed's QT policy reached an inflection point." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Asian market conditions
On Monday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and finally closed slightly down 0.13%. As of now, the U.S. dollar is quoted at 98.60.
Amazon plans to lay off up to 30,000 people.
Zelensky: Work with allies to formulate a ceasefire plan within seven to ten days.
Mexican President Sheinbaum: The United States has extended the deadline for trade negotiations by several weeks.
Philippine central bank official: Gold reserves are "excessive" and part of them should be sold to make a profit.
U.S. President Trump: I haven’t really thought about running for a third term in 2028.
Summary of institutional views
Chief Investment Officer Naeem Aslam: The Federal Reserve will "fly blindly" to cut interest rates this week, and the real risk should be hidden in...
Due to the lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve's decision-making will fall into the dilemma of "flying blindly". Although there is a precedent for a 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, this time the environment is more dangerous: the U.S. economic growth is slowing down, fiscal policy is in chaos, and monetary policy is already in a state of tightening. Any policy missteps or signaling misalignments could disrupt markets, overtighten financial conditions, or even reignite the inflationary flames.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the wording and tone of the policy statement are the real winner. If interest rate cuts are accompanied by hawkish www.xmhouses.comments, U.S. stocks will rise initially due to real earningsThe exchange rate and the strength of the US dollar have been setbacks, and international spot gold will also be under pressure. However, if it cooperates with dovish guidance, it may start an easing cycle and promote a full carnival of risk assets. A more aggressive 50 basis point interest rate cut will only occur when private data or market turmoil show that the economy is accelerating in deterioration. Although it will trigger a carnival in risk assets, it may also reveal that the Fed has crisis signals that are unknown to the market.
Another possibility is to stay on hold but release dovish forward guidance. This wait-and-see attitude, if www.xmhouses.communicated properly, can stabilize the market, but if it is interpreted as indecision, it will trigger volatility. The most dangerous scenario is to maintain interest rates while sending a hawkish signal. If Powell mentions terms such as "sticky inflation" or "premature easing," the market should be prepared for a perfect storm of a plunge in the S&P 500 index, a surge in the U.S. dollar, a fall in international spot gold, and a collapse in leveraged trading.
In this data fog, Powell will rely more on "soft data" such as ISM data, initial filing data and market inflation expectations, but these alternative indicators tend to fluctuate violently and lag behind. The real risk lurks here: as central banks fumble through the fog, any policy changes could trigger unexpected reverberations in the valley.
UBS: The government shutdown is expected to be lifted by the end of this month
This week will be crucial for the US dollar, with a number of major events about to take place. Market focus will be on the Federal Reserve policy meeting early Thursday morning. The market generally expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Investors will also be closely watching whether the Fed announces an end to quantitative tightening, www.xmhouses.comments on the government shutdown and its economic impact, and its stance on recent regional banking issues. The political agenda is equally busy. According to Polymarket forecasts, the most likely scenario is that the government shutdown will be lifted before the end of this month.
Overall, we expect incoming data and the outcome of the Fed meeting to reinforce our view of a weaker dollar through the end of the year. The US-China trade negotiations are still a variable affecting the trend of the US dollar, but the outcome is still full of uncertainty. In this environment, we believe selling downside risks on a break below 1.1540 for EURUSD remains attractive.
Goldman Sachs: The core CPI data is softer than expected, and the PCE price index may...
The core CPI in September rose 0.23% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, and the year-on-year increase slightly dropped to 3.02%. The increase in living costs slowed to 0.21% (previous value: 0.44%, average of the past three months: 0.28%), with rental inflation decelerating (0.20% vs. previous value: 0.30%), and owner equivalent rent (OER) inflation declining more significantly (0.13% vs. previous value: 0.38%). The OER deceleration is mainly due to record low readings in New England (possibly statistical noise) and normalization in small Southern cities after a spike in August. Excluding these two areas, we estimate that OER will increase by approximately 0.24% this month. While OER readings are likely to strengthen in the www.xmhouses.coming months due to a reversal of this month's volatility, we still expect rental and OER inflation to continue their decelerating trend as new rentsThe slowdown in rent growth will gradually be transmitted to official inflation statistics.
Core www.xmhouses.commodity inflation remained strong, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%: clothing rose 0.7%, entertainment supplies rose 0.4%, personal care products rose 0.4% (Goldman Sachs seasonally adjusted), auto parts rose 0.3% (Goldman Sachs seasonally adjusted), home decoration rose 0.2%, and new car prices rose 0.2%. www.xmhouses.computer software prices fell sharply again (-3.7%, previous value -4.9%). Auto insurance, car rental and leasing prices all fell, collectively dragging down the core CPI by about 2 basis points. The overall CPI increased by 0.31% month-on-month, mainly driven by a 1.51% increase in energy prices and a 0.25% increase in food prices.
Although the core CPI was slightly lower than our expectations, some core www.xmhouses.commodity www.xmhouses.components with a higher weight in the PCE rose more than expected, while the increase in OER with a lower weight in the PCE was much lower than expected. Based on the details of the CPI report, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.24% month-on-month in September (an increase from the 0.21% estimate before the CPI was released), corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 2.87%. At the same time, we expect the overall PCE price index to increase by 0.30% month-on-month and 2.83% year-on-year. The market-oriented core PCE is expected to increase by 0.18% month-on-month.
Goldman Sachs previews the October Fed meeting: Powell may be inclined to cite the September dot plot
The Federal Open Market www.xmhouses.committee is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the October meeting, bringing interest rates to 3.75-4%. The median forecast in the September dot plot shows three rate cuts this year as the baseline scenario. With official data on hold due to the government shutdown, alternative labor market data have been mixed at best, and there is currently no reason to deviate from original plans to support the labor market.
We do not expect the meeting to provide formal guidance on the December rate meeting, but if asked, Chairman Powell may be inclined to cite the September dot plot, which suggested a third rate cut in December. We think a December rate cut is highly likely as the dot plot has set it as the benchmark and the FOMC has implemented risk management with three consecutive rate cuts in the past. We doubt that the labor market data to be released by then - which will be affected by both the Department of Education's delayed resignation plan and the impact of the government shutdown on data collection - can send a convincing signal of "good news across the board".
We continue to expect the economy to strengthen slightly next year as the drag on growth from increased tariffs will lessen, the boost from the fiscal bill will be felt, and financial conditions will remain loose. Our current preliminary forecast is for two 25 basis point rate cuts in March and June 2026, taking terminal rates to 3-3.25%, but these rate cuts may be brought forward if labor market data continues to be weak; if the economy performs more solidly and the FOMC decides to wait for inflation to move closer to its 2% target, the rate cuts may be delayed.
Bank of America previews the October Fed meeting: Don’t change when you can’t see the way forward clearlyHeading
The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.0% at its October meeting. We also expect the FOMC to announce the end of the balance sheet reduction. We think the Fed will acknowledge the recent strength in economic activity. However, the trend of the overall policy focus shifting to employment mission may not change. It is also unlikely that Powell will provide clear guidance beyond this meeting due to the lack of official sector data and the conflict between employment and consumption.
Due to the government shutdown, we have not had much data since the September meeting. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its September CPI report on October 24, the September jobs report (and retail sales) will almost certainly not be released before the Fed meeting, even if the shutdown ends at the beginning of this week. As a result, there will be no material change in the Fed's message: While inflation remains elevated, policymakers are slightly more focused on downside risks to the jobs mandate.
We did learn at the end of September that second-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply from 3.3% to 3.8%. Third-quarter growth should also remain solid as spending in August beat expectations and July data was revised upwards. In fact, our own tracking GDP estimate for the third quarter is 2.8%, due in large part to strong consumption growth. Total household credit card spending increased by 2.0% year-on-year in September. The data we have for October shows that growth in total credit card spending per household has remained steady at about 2% year-on-year.
As a result, we believe the first sentence of the FOMC statement will be modified to acknowledge this rebound in economic activity. For example, it might say: "Recent indicators show that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace." The www.xmhouses.committee might also add some language to explain that its assessment of economic conditions has been affected by the lack of data due to the shutdown. We do not anticipate any changes to the language in the statement regarding the balance of risks or forward guidance.
Our US rates strategy team now expects the Fed to announce the end of quantitative tightening (balance sheet reduction) at the end of October, rather than at the end of the year. This will also be reflected in the statement.
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